The claim. “If you bought the S&P when the PE ratio is 23, in every case, there were no exceptions, the next 10 years was between 2 and -2.”
The speaker was describing a chart from JPMorgan’s Guide to the Markets . Each dot is one month since 1988.
It plots the S&P 500’s forward P/E against the yearly return over the next ten years. A forward P/E uses forecasts of next year’s profits.
P/E, or price-to-earnings, compares a company’s share price with its profits. For the whole S&P 500, a P/E of 23 means investors paid US$23 for every US$1 of yearly profit.
True on the chart. One bubble in history. The chart is right. We checked the current edition , page 57.
Every dot at about 23 times forecast profits sits between roughly -3% and +1% a year.
But those dots are not separate events. We checked every start since 1988 on S&P 500 total return data.
Every one followed by 2.5% a year or less came from one stretch: October 1998 to January 2001 . Neighbouring months share almost all of their ten years.
So “every case, no exceptions” is really one case: the dot-com bubble, seen month after month.
A longer test, on a different measure. JPMorgan’s forecast data starts in 1988. Actual profits go back to 1871, so we ran a separate test with them.
This uses a trailing P/E: price over the last twelve months of profits. It is not the chart’s number, so treat it as its own experiment.
Paying more did mean less, on average. Starts below 15 times profits made a typical 10.1% a year over the next ten years. Starts at 23 or more made a typical 6.5% .
Since 1871, the S&P 500 started a month at 23 times profits or more 124 times . Only 24 were followed by -2% to +2% a year. All 24 came from 1998 to 2001, the same bubble.
Every start since 1871. Each dot is one month. It shows the trailing P/E that month, and the yearly return over the next ten years. The shaded strip is the claim: -2% to +2% a year.
The red dots are the 64 months at 23 or more from 1997 to 2002. They ran from -3.5% to 7.4% a year. They overlap heavily, so they are one event, not 64.
Starting P/E against the next ten years
Each month from 1871 to 2013: the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio, against its yearly return over the next ten years. Of 124 starts at 23 or more, 24 were followed by -2% to +2% a year, all from 1998 to 2001. The other starts at 23 or more from 1997 to 2002 made -3.5% to 7.4%; those from other years made 6% to 16%. -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 5 15 25 35 45+ 23x Jan 1871: P/E 11, then +9.9% a year Feb 1871: P/E 11, then +9.7% a year Mar 1871: P/E 12, then +9.6% a year Apr 1871: P/E 12, then +9.2% a year May 1871: P/E 12, then +9.4% a year Jun 1871: P/E 12, then +9.7% a year Jul 1871: P/E 12, then +9.5% a year Aug 1871: P/E 12, then +9.1% a year Sep 1871: P/E 12, then +9.0% a year Oct 1871: P/E 11, then +9.4% a year Nov 1871: P/E 12, then +9.4% a year Dec 1871: P/E 12, then +8.8% a year Jan 1872: P/E 12, then +8.4% a year Feb 1872: P/E 12, then +8.1% a year Mar 1872: P/E 12, then +7.7% a year Apr 1872: P/E 13, then +7.4% a year May 1872: P/E 13, then +7.3% a year Jun 1872: P/E 12, then +7.4% a year Jul 1872: P/E 12, then +8.0% a year Aug 1872: P/E 12, then +8.5% a year Sep 1872: P/E 12, then +8.8% a year Oct 1872: P/E 12, then +8.4% a year Nov 1872: P/E 12, then +8.0% a year Dec 1872: P/E 12, then +7.8% a year Jan 1873: P/E 12, then +7.6% a year Feb 1873: P/E 12, then +7.3% a year Mar 1873: P/E 12, then +7.5% a year Apr 1873: P/E 11, then +7.9% a year May 1873: P/E 11, then +7.7% a year Jun 1873: P/E 11, then +7.9% a year Jul 1873: P/E 11, then +7.7% a year Aug 1873: P/E 11, then +7.2% a year Sep 1873: P/E 10, then +8.2% a year Oct 1873: P/E 9, then +8.9% a year Nov 1873: P/E 9, then +9.4% a year Dec 1873: P/E 10, then +8.2% a year Jan 1874: P/E 10, then +7.3% a year Feb 1874: P/E 10, then +7.2% a year Mar 1874: P/E 10, then +7.3% a year Apr 1874: P/E 10, then +7.2% a year May 1874: P/E 10, then +6.5% a year Jun 1874: P/E 10, then +6.1% a year Jul 1874: P/E 10, then +6.1% a year Aug 1874: P/E 10, then +6.7% a year Sep 1874: P/E 10, then +6.2% a year Oct 1874: P/E 10, then +5.9% a year Nov 1874: P/E 10, then +5.6% a year Dec 1874: P/E 10, then +5.6% a year Jan 1875: P/E 10, then +5.4% a year Feb 1875: P/E 10, then +5.7% a year Mar 1875: P/E 11, then +5.6% a year Apr 1875: P/E 11, then +5.4% a year May 1875: P/E 11, then +5.7% a year Jun 1875: P/E 11, then +5.9% a year Jul 1875: P/E 11, then +6.2% a year Aug 1875: P/E 11, then +6.8% a year Sep 1875: P/E 11, then +6.7% a year Oct 1875: P/E 11, then +7.5% a year Nov 1875: P/E 12, then +8.0% a year Dec 1875: P/E 12, then +7.9% a year Jan 1876: P/E 13, then +7.6% a year Feb 1876: P/E 13, then +7.7% a year Mar 1876: P/E 13, then +7.4% a year Apr 1876: P/E 13, then +7.7% a year May 1876: P/E 13, then +7.8% a year Jun 1876: P/E 13, then +8.4% a year Jul 1876: P/E 13, then +8.7% a year Aug 1876: P/E 13, then +9.2% a year Sep 1876: P/E 12, then +10.1% a year Oct 1876: P/E 13, then +10.4% a year Nov 1876: P/E 13, then +10.8% a year Dec 1876: P/E 13, then +10.6% a year Jan 1877: P/E 13, then +10.5% a year Feb 1877: P/E 12, then +11.1% a year Mar 1877: P/E 11, then +11.9% a year Apr 1877: P/E 10, then +12.9% a year May 1877: P/E 10, then +13.1% a year Jun 1877: P/E 9, then +13.5% a year Jul 1877: P/E 10, then +12.7% a year Aug 1877: P/E 10, then +11.7% a year Sep 1877: P/E 11, then +10.8% a year Oct 1877: P/E 11, then +10.2% a year Nov 1877: P/E 11, then +10.6% a year Dec 1877: P/E 11, then +10.5% a year Jan 1878: P/E 11, then +10.6% a year Feb 1878: P/E 11, then +10.8% a year Mar 1878: P/E 11, then +10.1% a year Apr 1878: P/E 11, then +9.8% a year May 1878: P/E 11, then +10.0% a year Jun 1878: P/E 11, then +9.4% a year Jul 1878: P/E 11, then +9.4% a year Aug 1878: P/E 11, then +9.8% a year Sep 1878: P/E 11, then +9.8% a year Oct 1878: P/E 11, then +9.8% a year Nov 1878: P/E 11, then +9.7% a year Dec 1878: P/E 11, then +9.5% a year Jan 1879: P/E 11, then +9.3% a year Feb 1879: P/E 12, then +9.0% a year Mar 1879: P/E 11, then +9.0% a year Apr 1879: P/E 11, then +8.6% a year May 1879: P/E 12, then +8.4% a year Jun 1879: P/E 11, then +8.5% a year Jul 1879: P/E 12, then +8.1% a year Aug 1879: P/E 11, then +8.1% a year Sep 1879: P/E 12, then +8.0% a year Oct 1879: P/E 13, then +6.7% a year Nov 1879: P/E 13, then +6.0% a year Dec 1879: P/E 13, then +6.0% a year Jan 1880: P/E 13, then +5.7% a year Feb 1880: P/E 13, then +5.4% a year Mar 1880: P/E 13, then +5.1% a year Apr 1880: P/E 12, then +5.6% a year May 1880: P/E 11, then +6.9% a year Jun 1880: P/E 11, then +6.8% a year Jul 1880: P/E 11, then +6.2% a year Aug 1880: P/E 11, then +5.6% a year Sep 1880: P/E 11, then +5.4% a year Oct 1880: P/E 11, then +4.6% a year Nov 1880: P/E 12, then +3.3% a year Dec 1880: P/E 12, then +2.7% a year Jan 1881: P/E 13, then +2.6% a year Feb 1881: P/E 13, then +2.7% a year Mar 1881: P/E 13, then +2.4% a year Apr 1881: P/E 13, then +2.8% a year May 1881: P/E 14, then +2.3% a year Jun 1881: P/E 14, then +2.0% a year Jul 1881: P/E 14, then +2.2% a year Aug 1881: P/E 14, then +2.8% a year Sep 1881: P/E 14, then +3.5% a year Oct 1881: P/E 14, then +3.6% a year Nov 1881: P/E 14, then +3.4% a year Dec 1881: P/E 14, then +4.0% a year Jan 1882: P/E 13, then +4.3% a year Feb 1882: P/E 13, then +4.6% a year Mar 1882: P/E 13, then +4.7% a year Apr 1882: P/E 13, then +4.7% a year May 1882: P/E 13, then +4.8% a year Jun 1882: P/E 13, then +4.8% a year Jul 1882: P/E 14, then +4.2% a year Aug 1882: P/E 14, then +4.0% a year Sep 1882: P/E 14, then +3.6% a year Oct 1882: P/E 14, then +4.1% a year Nov 1882: P/E 13, then +4.5% a year Dec 1882: P/E 14, then +4.4% a year Jan 1883: P/E 14, then +4.6% a year Feb 1883: P/E 13, then +4.6% a year Mar 1883: P/E 14, then +4.1% a year Apr 1883: P/E 14, then +3.9% a year May 1883: P/E 14, then +3.1% a year Jun 1883: P/E 14, then +2.5% a year Jul 1883: P/E 14, then +1.7% a year Aug 1883: P/E 13, then +1.9% a year Sep 1883: P/E 14, then +2.5% a year Oct 1883: P/E 13, then +3.1% a year Nov 1883: P/E 14, then +3.1% a year Dec 1883: P/E 13, then +2.9% a year Jan 1884: P/E 13, then +3.0% a year Feb 1884: P/E 14, then +2.9% a year Mar 1884: P/E 14, then +3.2% a year Apr 1884: P/E 14, then +3.8% a year May 1884: P/E 13, then +4.3% a year Jun 1884: P/E 13, then +4.6% a year Jul 1884: P/E 13, then +4.3% a year Aug 1884: P/E 14, then +4.1% a year Sep 1884: P/E 14, then +4.5% a year Oct 1884: P/E 14, then +4.5% a year Nov 1884: P/E 14, then +4.8% a year Dec 1884: P/E 14, then +4.7% a year Jan 1885: P/E 14, then +4.8% a year Feb 1885: P/E 14, then +4.3% a year Mar 1885: P/E 15, then +4.2% a year Apr 1885: P/E 15, then +4.7% a year May 1885: P/E 15, then +5.3% a year Jun 1885: P/E 15, then +5.6% a year Jul 1885: P/E 16, then +5.2% a year Aug 1885: P/E 17, then +4.8% a year Sep 1885: P/E 17, then +5.0% a year Oct 1885: P/E 18, then +4.2% a year Nov 1885: P/E 19, then +3.2% a year Dec 1885: P/E 19, then +2.7% a year Jan 1886: P/E 19, then +2.5% a year Feb 1886: P/E 19, then +2.8% a year Mar 1886: P/E 18, then +2.8% a year Apr 1886: P/E 18, then +3.0% a year May 1886: P/E 17, then +3.2% a year Jun 1886: P/E 18, then +2.6% a year Jul 1886: P/E 17, then +1.7% a year Aug 1886: P/E 17, then +1.1% a year Sep 1886: P/E 17, then +1.3% a year Oct 1886: P/E 18, then +1.3% a year Nov 1886: P/E 18, then +1.7% a year Dec 1886: P/E 17, then +1.6% a year Jan 1887: P/E 17, then +1.7% a year Feb 1887: P/E 17, then +1.7% a year Mar 1887: P/E 17, then +1.5% a year Apr 1887: P/E 17, then +0.9% a year May 1887: P/E 17, then +0.8% a year Jun 1887: P/E 17, then +1.6% a year Jul 1887: P/E 16, then +2.3% a year Aug 1887: P/E 16, then +3.2% a year Sep 1887: P/E 15, then +3.8% a year Oct 1887: P/E 15, then +3.8% a year Nov 1887: P/E 15, then +3.2% a year Dec 1887: P/E 15, then +3.5% a year Jan 1888: P/E 15, then +3.7% a year Feb 1888: P/E 15, then +3.7% a year Mar 1888: P/E 15, then +3.6% a year Apr 1888: P/E 16, then +3.4% a year May 1888: P/E 16, then +3.9% a year Jun 1888: P/E 16, then +4.6% a year Jul 1888: P/E 17, then +4.4% a year Aug 1888: P/E 18, then +4.5% a year Sep 1888: P/E 19, then +4.3% a year Oct 1888: P/E 19, then +4.1% a year Nov 1888: P/E 20, then +4.7% a year Dec 1888: P/E 20, then +5.5% a year Jan 1889: P/E 20, then +6.0% a year Feb 1889: P/E 20, then +6.3% a year Mar 1889: P/E 19, then +6.7% a year Apr 1889: P/E 19, then +6.8% a year May 1889: P/E 19, then +6.1% a year Jun 1889: P/E 19, then +5.6% a year Jul 1889: P/E 19, then +6.2% a year Aug 1889: P/E 19, then +6.3% a year Sep 1889: P/E 19, then +6.0% a year Oct 1889: P/E 18, then +6.1% a year Nov 1889: P/E 18, then +6.4% a year Dec 1889: P/E 18, then +5.7% a year Jan 1890: P/E 18, then +5.7% a year Feb 1890: P/E 18, then +6.0% a year Mar 1890: P/E 18, then +6.2% a year Apr 1890: P/E 18, then +6.1% a year May 1890: P/E 19, then +5.1% a year Jun 1890: P/E 19, then +4.9% a year Jul 1890: P/E 19, then +5.0% a year Aug 1890: P/E 18, then +5.4% a year Sep 1890: P/E 18, then +5.3% a year Oct 1890: P/E 17, then +6.2% a year Nov 1890: P/E 16, then +7.8% a year Dec 1890: P/E 16, then +8.7% a year Jan 1891: P/E 16, then +8.4% a year Feb 1891: P/E 16, then +8.6% a year Mar 1891: P/E 16, then +9.1% a year Apr 1891: P/E 16, then +9.7% a year May 1891: P/E 16, then +9.1% a year Jun 1891: P/E 15, then +10.4% a year Jul 1891: P/E 15, then +9.8% a year Aug 1891: P/E 15, then +9.6% a year Sep 1891: P/E 16, then +8.7% a year Oct 1891: P/E 16, then +8.6% a year Nov 1891: P/E 16, then +8.9% a year Dec 1891: P/E 16, then +8.4% a year Jan 1892: P/E 16, then +8.5% a year Feb 1892: P/E 16, then +8.6% a year Mar 1892: P/E 16, then +8.4% a year Apr 1892: P/E 16, then +8.8% a year May 1892: P/E 16, then +8.8% a year Jun 1892: P/E 16, then +8.8% a year Jul 1892: P/E 15, then +9.0% a year Aug 1892: P/E 16, then +9.2% a year Sep 1892: P/E 15, then +9.4% a year Oct 1892: P/E 15, then +8.9% a year Nov 1892: P/E 15, then +8.5% a year Dec 1892: P/E 15, then +8.3% a year Jan 1893: P/E 16, then +8.7% a year Feb 1893: P/E 16, then +8.8% a year Mar 1893: P/E 16, then +8.8% a year Apr 1893: P/E 16, then +8.3% a year May 1893: P/E 15, then +9.1% a year Jun 1893: P/E 15, then +9.0% a year Jul 1893: P/E 14, then +9.6% a year Aug 1893: P/E 14, then +9.5% a year Sep 1893: P/E 15, then +8.4% a year Oct 1893: P/E 16, then +7.8% a year Nov 1893: P/E 17, then +7.7% a year Dec 1893: P/E 17, then +8.5% a year Jan 1894: P/E 17, then +8.9% a year Feb 1894: P/E 18, then +8.5% a year Mar 1894: P/E 19, then +8.1% a year Apr 1894: P/E 20, then +8.2% a year May 1894: P/E 20, then +8.4% a year Jun 1894: P/E 21, then +8.6% a year Jul 1894: P/E 21, then +9.2% a year Aug 1894: P/E 23, then +9.2% a year Mar 1895: P/E 23, then +12.5% a year Jun 1895: P/E 23, then +10.7% a year Jul 1895: P/E 22, then +10.9% a year Aug 1895: P/E 22, then +11.2% a year Sep 1895: P/E 21, then +11.2% a year Oct 1895: P/E 20, then +11.5% a year Nov 1895: P/E 19, then +11.8% a year Dec 1895: P/E 17, then +12.7% a year Jan 1896: P/E 17, then +13.2% a year Feb 1896: P/E 18, then +12.7% a year Mar 1896: P/E 18, then +12.6% a year Apr 1896: P/E 19, then +12.3% a year May 1896: P/E 19, then +12.1% a year Jun 1896: P/E 19, then +12.4% a year Jul 1896: P/E 18, then +12.9% a year Aug 1896: P/E 17, then +14.3% a year Sep 1896: P/E 18, then +14.1% a year Oct 1896: P/E 19, then +13.5% a year Nov 1896: P/E 21, then +13.0% a year Dec 1896: P/E 20, then +13.3% a year Jan 1897: P/E 19, then +12.9% a year Feb 1897: P/E 18, then +12.7% a year Mar 1897: P/E 18, then +11.5% a year Apr 1897: P/E 17, then +11.9% a year May 1897: P/E 16, then +11.5% a year Jun 1897: P/E 16, then +10.6% a year Jul 1897: P/E 17, then +10.6% a year Aug 1897: P/E 17, then +9.0% a year Sep 1897: P/E 17, then +8.4% a year Oct 1897: P/E 16, then +7.6% a year Nov 1897: P/E 15, then +7.3% a year Dec 1897: P/E 15, then +7.7% a year Jan 1898: P/E 16, then +7.8% a year Feb 1898: P/E 15, then +7.5% a year Mar 1898: P/E 15, then +8.4% a year Apr 1898: P/E 14, then +9.2% a year May 1898: P/E 15, then +9.1% a year Jun 1898: P/E 15, then +8.7% a year Jul 1898: P/E 15, then +9.1% a year Aug 1898: P/E 16, then +9.2% a year Sep 1898: P/E 15, then +9.1% a year Oct 1898: P/E 15, then +9.4% a year Nov 1898: P/E 15, then +9.8% a year Dec 1898: P/E 16, then +9.4% a year Jan 1899: P/E 17, then +8.7% a year Feb 1899: P/E 17, then +8.0% a year Mar 1899: P/E 17, then +8.0% a year Apr 1899: P/E 16, then +8.3% a year May 1899: P/E 15, then +9.1% a year Jun 1899: P/E 15, then +9.6% a year Jul 1899: P/E 15, then +9.4% a year Aug 1899: P/E 15, then +9.4% a year Sep 1899: P/E 14, then +9.5% a year Oct 1899: P/E 14, then +9.6% a year Nov 1899: P/E 14, then +9.4% a year Dec 1899: P/E 13, then +10.3% a year Jan 1900: P/E 13, then +9.9% a year Feb 1900: P/E 13, then +9.3% a year Mar 1900: P/E 13, then +9.5% a year Apr 1900: P/E 13, then +9.1% a year May 1900: P/E 13, then +9.5% a year Jun 1900: P/E 12, then +9.3% a year Jul 1900: P/E 12, then +8.7% a year Aug 1900: P/E 12, then +8.8% a year Sep 1900: P/E 12, then +9.2% a year Oct 1900: P/E 13, then +9.3% a year Nov 1900: P/E 14, then +8.4% a year Dec 1900: P/E 14, then +7.5% a year Jan 1901: P/E 15, then +7.5% a year Feb 1901: P/E 15, then +7.4% a year Mar 1901: P/E 15, then +6.9% a year Apr 1901: P/E 17, then +6.0% a year May 1901: P/E 16, then +6.8% a year Jun 1901: P/E 17, then +6.0% a year Jul 1901: P/E 16, then +6.7% a year Aug 1901: P/E 16, then +6.0% a year Sep 1901: P/E 16, then +5.5% a year Oct 1901: P/E 16, then +5.7% a year Nov 1901: P/E 16, then +5.9% a year Dec 1901: P/E 16, then +6.1% a year Jan 1902: P/E 16, then +5.9% a year Feb 1902: P/E 16, then +5.8% a year Mar 1902: P/E 15, then +6.1% a year Apr 1902: P/E 16, then +6.0% a year May 1902: P/E 15, then +6.1% a year Jun 1902: P/E 15, then +6.1% a year Jul 1902: P/E 15, then +5.9% a year Aug 1902: P/E 15, then +5.9% a year Sep 1902: P/E 15, then +5.9% a year Oct 1902: P/E 14, then +6.3% a year Nov 1902: P/E 13, then +6.6% a year Dec 1902: P/E 13, then +6.4% a year Jan 1903: P/E 14, then +5.8% a year Feb 1903: P/E 14, then +5.5% a year Mar 1903: P/E 13, then +5.8% a year Apr 1903: P/E 13, then +6.2% a year May 1903: P/E 13, then +6.1% a year Jun 1903: P/E 12, then +6.2% a year Jul 1903: P/E 12, then +6.8% a year Aug 1903: P/E 12, then +7.5% a year Sep 1903: P/E 12, then +7.8% a year Oct 1903: P/E 11, then +7.8% a year Nov 1903: P/E 12, then +7.5% a year Dec 1903: P/E 12, then +7.0% a year Jan 1904: P/E 13, then +7.3% a year Feb 1904: P/E 12, then +7.7% a year Mar 1904: P/E 12, then +7.6% a year Apr 1904: P/E 13, then +7.1% a year May 1904: P/E 13, then +7.3% a year Jun 1904: P/E 13, then +7.3% a year Jul 1904: P/E 13, then +6.3% a year Aug 1904: P/E 14, then +5.9% a year Sep 1904: P/E 15, then +5.5% a year Oct 1904: P/E 16, then +4.9% a year Nov 1904: P/E 17, then +4.3% a year Dec 1904: P/E 17, then +3.8% a year Jan 1905: P/E 17, then +3.8% a year Feb 1905: P/E 17, then +3.2% a year Mar 1905: P/E 17, then +3.2% a year Apr 1905: P/E 16, then +4.1% a year May 1905: P/E 15, then +4.4% a year Jun 1905: P/E 15, then +4.4% a year Jul 1905: P/E 15, then +4.0% a year Aug 1905: P/E 15, then +4.1% a year Sep 1905: P/E 15, then +4.5% a year Oct 1905: P/E 15, then +4.9% a year Nov 1905: P/E 14, then +5.3% a year Dec 1905: P/E 14, then +5.1% a year Jan 1906: P/E 15, then +4.6% a year Feb 1906: P/E 14, then +4.5% a year Mar 1906: P/E 14, then +4.8% a year Apr 1906: P/E 13, then +4.8% a year May 1906: P/E 13, then +5.3% a year Jun 1906: P/E 13, then +5.3% a year Jul 1906: P/E 13, then +5.5% a year Aug 1906: P/E 13, then +4.8% a year Sep 1906: P/E 14, then +4.9% a year Oct 1906: P/E 13, then +5.6% a year Nov 1906: P/E 13, then +5.6% a year Dec 1906: P/E 13, then +5.3% a year Jan 1907: P/E 13, then +5.3% a year Feb 1907: P/E 12, then +5.1% a year Mar 1907: P/E 11, then +6.5% a year Apr 1907: P/E 12, then +6.3% a year May 1907: P/E 11, then +6.3% a year Jun 1907: P/E 11, then +6.9% a year Jul 1907: P/E 12, then +6.2% a year Aug 1907: P/E 11, then +6.8% a year Sep 1907: P/E 11, then +6.4% a year Oct 1907: P/E 10, then +7.0% a year Nov 1907: P/E 9, then +6.8% a year Dec 1907: P/E 10, then +5.9% a year Jan 1908: P/E 10, then +6.1% a year Feb 1908: P/E 10, then +6.8% a year Mar 1908: P/E 11, then +6.2% a year Apr 1908: P/E 11, then +5.6% a year May 1908: P/E 12, then +5.4% a year Jun 1908: P/E 12, then +5.4% a year Jul 1908: P/E 13, then +5.2% a year Aug 1908: P/E 14, then +4.8% a year Sep 1908: P/E 14, then +4.9% a year Oct 1908: P/E 14, then +5.3% a year Nov 1908: P/E 15, then +4.9% a year Dec 1908: P/E 16, then +4.4% a year Jan 1909: P/E 15, then +4.4% a year Feb 1909: P/E 14, then +4.7% a year Mar 1909: P/E 14, then +4.9% a year Apr 1909: P/E 15, then +4.8% a year May 1909: P/E 15, then +5.2% a year Jun 1909: P/E 15, then +5.3% a year Jul 1909: P/E 15, then +5.5% a year Aug 1909: P/E 15, then +4.5% a year Sep 1909: P/E 14, then +4.7% a year Oct 1909: P/E 14, then +5.2% a year Nov 1909: P/E 14, then +5.0% a year Dec 1909: P/E 14, then +4.5% a year Jan 1910: P/E 13, then +4.7% a year Feb 1910: P/E 13, then +4.2% a year Mar 1910: P/E 13, then +4.6% a year Apr 1910: P/E 13, then +4.8% a year May 1910: P/E 13, then +4.3% a year Jun 1910: P/E 12, then +4.7% a year Jul 1910: P/E 12, then +5.2% a year Aug 1910: P/E 12, then +4.5% a year Sep 1910: P/E 12, then +4.9% a year Oct 1910: P/E 13, then +4.4% a year Nov 1910: P/E 13, then +3.9% a year Dec 1910: P/E 12, then +3.2% a year Jan 1911: P/E 13, then +3.5% a year Feb 1911: P/E 13, then +3.2% a year Mar 1911: P/E 13, then +3.1% a year Apr 1911: P/E 14, then +3.2% a year May 1911: P/E 14, then +3.3% a year Jun 1911: P/E 15, then +2.3% a year Jul 1911: P/E 15, then +2.3% a year Aug 1911: P/E 14, then +2.7% a year Sep 1911: P/E 14, then +3.5% a year Oct 1911: P/E 14, then +3.6% a year Nov 1911: P/E 15, then +3.8% a year Dec 1911: P/E 15, then +4.1% a year Jan 1912: P/E 15, then +4.1% a year Feb 1912: P/E 15, then +4.4% a year Mar 1912: P/E 15, then +4.5% a year Apr 1912: P/E 15, then +4.8% a year May 1912: P/E 15, then +5.2% a year Jun 1912: P/E 15, then +5.2% a year Jul 1912: P/E 15, then +5.2% a year Aug 1912: P/E 15, then +5.4% a year Sep 1912: P/E 15, then +5.6% a year Oct 1912: P/E 14, then +5.8% a year Nov 1912: P/E 14, then +5.4% a year Dec 1912: P/E 13, then +5.8% a year Jan 1913: P/E 13, then +6.0% a year Feb 1913: P/E 13, then +6.9% a year Mar 1913: P/E 13, then +7.3% a year Apr 1913: P/E 13, then +6.9% a year May 1913: P/E 13, then +6.7% a year Jun 1913: P/E 12, then +6.8% a year Jul 1913: P/E 12, then +6.3% a year Aug 1913: P/E 13, then +6.1% a year Sep 1913: P/E 13, then +6.1% a year Oct 1913: P/E 13, then +6.2% a year Nov 1913: P/E 13, then +6.8% a year Dec 1913: P/E 13, then +7.2% a year Jan 1914: P/E 13, then +7.1% a year Feb 1914: P/E 14, then +7.0% a year Mar 1914: P/E 14, then +7.0% a year Apr 1914: P/E 14, then +7.1% a year May 1914: P/E 14, then +7.0% a year Jun 1914: P/E 14, then +7.2% a year Jul 1914: P/E 14, then +8.3% a year Aug 1914: P/E 14, then +8.7% a year Sep 1914: P/E 14, then +8.6% a year Oct 1914: P/E 14, then +8.5% a year Nov 1914: P/E 15, then +9.1% a year Dec 1914: P/E 14, then +10.1% a year Jan 1915: P/E 14, then +10.3% a year Feb 1915: P/E 13, then +10.6% a year Mar 1915: P/E 12, then +10.0% a year Apr 1915: P/E 13, then +9.1% a year May 1915: P/E 12, then +9.7% a year Jun 1915: P/E 11, then +9.8% a year Jul 1915: P/E 11, then +10.1% a year Aug 1915: P/E 11, then +9.8% a year Sep 1915: P/E 11, then +9.7% a year Oct 1915: P/E 11, then +9.4% a year Nov 1915: P/E 11, then +9.4% a year Dec 1915: P/E 11, then +9.6% a year Jan 1916: P/E 10, then +9.9% a year Feb 1916: P/E 9, then +10.1% a year Mar 1916: P/E 9, then +9.3% a year Apr 1916: P/E 8, then +9.2% a year May 1916: P/E 8, then +9.0% a year Jun 1916: P/E 8, then +9.4% a year Jul 1916: P/E 7, then +10.0% a year Aug 1916: P/E 7, then +10.3% a year Sep 1916: P/E 7, then +10.1% a year Oct 1916: P/E 7, then +9.5% a year Nov 1916: P/E 7, then +9.4% a year Dec 1916: P/E 6, then +10.1% a year Jan 1917: P/E 6, then +10.2% a year Feb 1917: P/E 6, then +11.1% a year Mar 1917: P/E 6, then +10.9% a year Apr 1917: P/E 6, then +11.3% a year May 1917: P/E 6, then +12.1% a year Jun 1917: P/E 6, then +12.0% a year Jul 1917: P/E 6, then +12.5% a year Aug 1917: P/E 6, then +13.4% a year Sep 1917: P/E 6, then +14.6% a year Oct 1917: P/E 6, then +15.0% a year Nov 1917: P/E 5, then +16.2% a year Dec 1917: P/E 5, then +16.8% a year Jan 1918: P/E 6, then +16.1% a year Feb 1918: P/E 6, then +15.6% a year Mar 1918: P/E 6, then +16.4% a year Apr 1918: P/E 6, then +17.2% a year May 1918: P/E 6, then +17.1% a year Jun 1918: P/E 7, then +16.5% a year Jul 1918: P/E 7, then +16.4% a year Aug 1918: P/E 7, then +16.6% a year Sep 1918: P/E 7, then +17.5% a year Oct 1918: P/E 8, then +17.2% a year Nov 1918: P/E 8, then +17.6% a year Dec 1918: P/E 8, then +17.9% a year Jan 1919: P/E 8, then +18.8% a year Feb 1919: P/E 8, then +18.7% a year Mar 1919: P/E 8, then +18.6% a year Apr 1919: P/E 9, then +18.1% a year May 1919: P/E 9, then +17.4% a year Jun 1919: P/E 10, then +17.3% a year Jul 1919: P/E 10, then +17.9% a year Aug 1919: P/E 9, then +19.4% a year Sep 1919: P/E 10, then +19.6% a year Oct 1919: P/E 10, then +17.7% a year Nov 1919: P/E 10, then +14.4% a year Dec 1919: P/E 10, then +15.2% a year Jan 1920: P/E 10, then +15.5% a year Feb 1920: P/E 9, then +17.2% a year Mar 1920: P/E 10, then +16.8% a year Apr 1920: P/E 10, then +17.6% a year May 1920: P/E 9, then +17.6% a year Jun 1920: P/E 9, then +16.5% a year Jul 1920: P/E 9, then +16.3% a year Aug 1920: P/E 9, then +16.6% a year Sep 1920: P/E 9, then +16.1% a year Oct 1920: P/E 10, then +14.4% a year Nov 1920: P/E 9, then +14.2% a year Dec 1920: P/E 9, then +14.4% a year Jan 1921: P/E 9, then +14.3% a year Feb 1921: P/E 10, then +15.2% a year Mar 1921: P/E 10, then +15.7% a year Apr 1921: P/E 11, then +14.4% a year May 1921: P/E 12, then +12.9% a year Jun 1921: P/E 12, then +13.5% a year Jul 1921: P/E 13, then +13.9% a year Aug 1921: P/E 14, then +13.7% a year Sep 1921: P/E 16, then +11.6% a year Oct 1921: P/E 18, then +9.9% a year Nov 1921: P/E 21, then +9.5% a year Jan 1922: P/E 23, then +6.7% a year Feb 1922: P/E 21, then +6.5% a year Mar 1922: P/E 20, then +6.1% a year Apr 1922: P/E 19, then +2.7% a year May 1922: P/E 19, then +1.0% a year Jun 1922: P/E 17, then -0.3% a year Jul 1922: P/E 16, then +0.2% a year Aug 1922: P/E 16, then +4.0% a year Sep 1922: P/E 15, then +4.7% a year Oct 1922: P/E 15, then +3.0% a year Nov 1922: P/E 13, then +3.4% a year Dec 1922: P/E 13, then +3.1% a year Jan 1923: P/E 12, then +3.4% a year Feb 1923: P/E 13, then +1.7% a year Mar 1923: P/E 12, then +1.5% a year Apr 1923: P/E 12, then +2.9% a year May 1923: P/E 11, then +6.0% a year Jun 1923: P/E 10, then +8.2% a year Jul 1923: P/E 9, then +9.3% a year Aug 1923: P/E 9, then +8.7% a year Sep 1923: P/E 9, then +8.5% a year Oct 1923: P/E 9, then +7.6% a year Nov 1923: P/E 9, then +7.5% a year Dec 1923: P/E 9, then +7.3% a year Jan 1924: P/E 9, then +7.6% a year Feb 1924: P/E 9, then +8.3% a year Mar 1924: P/E 9, then +7.9% a year Apr 1924: P/E 9, then +8.3% a year May 1924: P/E 9, then +7.2% a year Jun 1924: P/E 9, then +7.1% a year Jul 1924: P/E 9, then +6.1% a year Aug 1924: P/E 10, then +5.3% a year Sep 1924: P/E 10, then +5.1% a year Oct 1924: P/E 10, then +5.3% a year Nov 1924: P/E 10, then +5.0% a year Dec 1924: P/E 11, then +4.6% a year Jan 1925: P/E 11, then +4.1% a year Feb 1925: P/E 11, then +3.7% a year Mar 1925: P/E 10, then +3.3% a year Apr 1925: P/E 10, then +4.2% a year May 1925: P/E 10, then +4.6% a year Jun 1925: P/E 10, then +4.8% a year Jul 1925: P/E 10, then +5.1% a year Aug 1925: P/E 10, then +5.6% a year Sep 1925: P/E 10, then +5.6% a year Oct 1925: P/E 10, then +5.5% a year Nov 1925: P/E 10, then +6.1% a year Dec 1925: P/E 10, then +5.9% a year Jan 1926: P/E 10, then +6.3% a year Feb 1926: P/E 10, then +6.9% a year Mar 1926: P/E 9, then +7.8% a year Apr 1926: P/E 9, then +8.2% a year May 1926: P/E 9, then +7.5% a year Jun 1926: P/E 10, then +7.4% a year Jul 1926: P/E 10, then +7.6% a year Aug 1926: P/E 11, then +7.4% a year Sep 1926: P/E 11, then +7.3% a year Oct 1926: P/E 10, then +8.1% a year Nov 1926: P/E 11, then +8.2% a year Dec 1926: P/E 11, then +7.8% a year Jan 1927: P/E 11, then +8.2% a year Feb 1927: P/E 11, then +8.3% a year Mar 1927: P/E 11, then +8.1% a year Apr 1927: P/E 12, then +7.2% a year May 1927: P/E 12, then +6.3% a year Jun 1927: P/E 13, then +5.8% a year Jul 1927: P/E 13, then +6.2% a year Aug 1927: P/E 14, then +5.7% a year Sep 1927: P/E 15, then +3.6% a year Oct 1927: P/E 15, then +2.1% a year Nov 1927: P/E 15, then +1.0% a year Dec 1927: P/E 16, then +0.6% a year Jan 1928: P/E 15, then +0.8% a year Feb 1928: P/E 15, then +0.7% a year Mar 1928: P/E 16, then -0.4% a year Apr 1928: P/E 16, then -1.4% a year May 1928: P/E 16, then -1.6% a year Jun 1928: P/E 15, then -0.9% a year Jul 1928: P/E 15, then +0.9% a year Aug 1928: P/E 15, then +0.6% a year Sep 1928: P/E 16, then -0.5% a year Oct 1928: P/E 16, then +0.4% a year Nov 1928: P/E 17, then -0.3% a year Dec 1928: P/E 17, then -0.6% a year Jan 1929: P/E 18, then -1.4% a year Feb 1929: P/E 18, then -1.6% a year Mar 1929: P/E 18, then -1.8% a year Apr 1929: P/E 17, then -3.0% a year May 1929: P/E 17, then -2.8% a year Jun 1929: P/E 17, then -2.8% a year Jul 1929: P/E 19, then -3.4% a year Aug 1929: P/E 20, then -4.0% a year Sep 1929: P/E 20, then -3.4% a year Oct 1929: P/E 18, then -2.2% a year Nov 1929: P/E 13, then +0.7% a year Dec 1929: P/E 13, then +0.0% a year Jan 1930: P/E 14, then -0.2% a year Feb 1930: P/E 15, then -0.8% a year Mar 1930: P/E 17, then -1.2% a year Apr 1930: P/E 18, then -1.7% a year May 1930: P/E 18, then -2.6% a year Jun 1930: P/E 17, then -2.4% a year Jul 1930: P/E 17, then -1.9% a year Aug 1930: P/E 18, then -1.5% a year Sep 1930: P/E 18, then -1.1% a year Oct 1930: P/E 17, then +0.5% a year Nov 1930: P/E 16, then +1.5% a year Dec 1930: P/E 16, then +1.8% a year Jan 1931: P/E 17, then +1.5% a year Feb 1931: P/E 19, then +0.1% a year Mar 1931: P/E 20, then -0.0% a year Apr 1931: P/E 19, then +0.7% a year May 1931: P/E 17, then +1.5% a year Jun 1931: P/E 18, then +2.2% a year Jul 1931: P/E 19, then +2.4% a year Aug 1931: P/E 19, then +2.6% a year Sep 1931: P/E 17, then +4.3% a year Oct 1931: P/E 15, then +5.4% a year Nov 1931: P/E 16, then +4.8% a year Dec 1931: P/E 14, then +6.2% a year Jan 1932: P/E 14, then +6.6% a year Feb 1932: P/E 14, then +6.3% a year Mar 1932: P/E 15, then +5.7% a year Apr 1932: P/E 12, then +8.1% a year May 1932: P/E 10, then +9.7% a year Jun 1932: P/E 9, then +11.7% a year Jul 1932: P/E 10, then +11.6% a year Aug 1932: P/E 16, then +7.0% a year Sep 1932: P/E 18, then +6.2% a year Oct 1932: P/E 16, then +8.5% a year Nov 1932: P/E 17, then +8.8% a year Dec 1932: P/E 17, then +9.2% a year Jan 1933: P/E 17, then +9.4% a year Feb 1933: P/E 15, then +11.4% a year Mar 1933: P/E 15, then +11.8% a year Apr 1933: P/E 16, then +11.0% a year May 1933: P/E 21, then +8.7% a year Oct 1933: P/E 22, then +7.9% a year Nov 1933: P/E 22, then +7.1% a year Dec 1933: P/E 23, then +7.1% a year May 1934: P/E 21, then +7.8% a year Jun 1934: P/E 21, then +8.2% a year Jul 1934: P/E 20, then +9.0% a year Aug 1934: P/E 19, then +9.3% a year Sep 1934: P/E 19, then +9.4% a year Oct 1934: P/E 19, then +9.6% a year Nov 1934: P/E 19, then +9.2% a year Dec 1934: P/E 19, then +9.3% a year Jan 1935: P/E 16, then +9.7% a year Feb 1935: P/E 14, then +10.4% a year Mar 1935: P/E 12, then +11.1% a year Apr 1935: P/E 12, then +10.6% a year May 1935: P/E 12, then +10.1% a year Jun 1935: P/E 12, then +9.9% a year Jul 1935: P/E 13, then +9.1% a year Aug 1935: P/E 15, then +8.5% a year Sep 1935: P/E 15, then +8.9% a year Oct 1935: P/E 16, then +9.1% a year Nov 1935: P/E 17, then +8.5% a year Dec 1935: P/E 17, then +8.7% a year Jan 1936: P/E 18, then +8.5% a year Feb 1936: P/E 19, then +7.9% a year Mar 1936: P/E 19, then +7.4% a year Apr 1936: P/E 18, then +8.1% a year May 1936: P/E 17, then +8.7% a year Jun 1936: P/E 17, then +8.1% a year Jul 1936: P/E 17, then +7.2% a year Aug 1936: P/E 17, then +6.8% a year Sep 1936: P/E 17, then +5.0% a year Oct 1936: P/E 17, then +4.2% a year Nov 1936: P/E 17, then +3.9% a year Dec 1936: P/E 17, then +4.4% a year Jan 1937: P/E 17, then +4.1% a year Feb 1937: P/E 17, then +4.2% a year Mar 1937: P/E 16, then +3.8% a year Apr 1937: P/E 15, then +4.1% a year May 1937: P/E 14, then +4.4% a year Jun 1937: P/E 13, then +5.1% a year Jul 1937: P/E 14, then +5.2% a year Aug 1937: P/E 14, then +4.8% a year Sep 1937: P/E 12, then +6.2% a year Oct 1937: P/E 10, then +8.1% a year Nov 1937: P/E 10, then +9.0% a year Dec 1937: P/E 10, then +9.0% a year Jan 1938: P/E 11, then +8.5% a year Feb 1938: P/E 11, then +8.2% a year Mar 1938: P/E 11, then +9.1% a year Apr 1938: P/E 11, then +10.4% a year May 1938: P/E 12, then +10.8% a year Jun 1938: P/E 13, then +10.9% a year Jul 1938: P/E 17, then +8.7% a year Aug 1938: P/E 18, then +8.3% a year Sep 1938: P/E 19, then +8.7% a year Oct 1938: P/E 21, then +7.8% a year Nov 1938: P/E 21, then +7.2% a year Dec 1938: P/E 20, then +7.5% a year Jan 1939: P/E 19, then +7.8% a year Feb 1939: P/E 18, then +7.5% a year Mar 1939: P/E 17, then +7.6% a year Apr 1939: P/E 15, then +9.1% a year May 1939: P/E 15, then +8.6% a year Jun 1939: P/E 15, then +7.8% a year Jul 1939: P/E 15, then +8.2% a year Aug 1939: P/E 15, then +8.8% a year Sep 1939: P/E 16, then +7.8% a year Oct 1939: P/E 15, then +8.0% a year Nov 1939: P/E 15, then +8.4% a year Dec 1939: P/E 14, then +8.9% a year Jan 1940: P/E 13, then +9.2% a year Feb 1940: P/E 13, then +9.5% a year Mar 1940: P/E 12, then +9.7% a year Apr 1940: P/E 12, then +9.9% a year May 1940: P/E 10, then +11.9% a year Jun 1940: P/E 9, then +13.1% a year Jul 1940: P/E 9, then +11.9% a year Aug 1940: P/E 10, then +12.3% a year Sep 1940: P/E 10, then +12.3% a year Oct 1940: P/E 10, then +12.6% a year Nov 1940: P/E 10, then +12.3% a year Dec 1940: P/E 10, then +12.8% a year Jan 1941: P/E 10, then +13.6% a year Feb 1941: P/E 9, then +14.7% a year Mar 1941: P/E 9, then +14.5% a year Apr 1941: P/E 9, then +15.0% a year May 1941: P/E 9, then +15.2% a year Jun 1941: P/E 9, then +14.6% a year Jul 1941: P/E 9, then +14.3% a year Aug 1941: P/E 9, then +14.8% a year Sep 1941: P/E 9, then +15.1% a year Oct 1941: P/E 8, then +15.5% a year Nov 1941: P/E 8, then +15.7% a year Dec 1941: P/E 8, then +16.8% a year Jan 1942: P/E 8, then +16.9% a year Feb 1942: P/E 8, then +17.1% a year Mar 1942: P/E 8, then +17.8% a year Apr 1942: P/E 8, then +18.2% a year May 1942: P/E 8, then +18.0% a year Jun 1942: P/E 8, then +17.7% a year Jul 1942: P/E 9, then +17.6% a year Aug 1942: P/E 9, then +17.7% a year Sep 1942: P/E 9, then +17.4% a year Oct 1942: P/E 10, then +16.3% a year Nov 1942: P/E 9, then +16.5% a year Dec 1942: P/E 9, then +16.9% a year Jan 1943: P/E 10, then +16.3% a year Feb 1943: P/E 10, then +15.4% a year Mar 1943: P/E 10, then +15.1% a year Apr 1943: P/E 11, then +14.2% a year May 1943: P/E 11, then +13.8% a year Jun 1943: P/E 11, then +13.2% a year Jul 1943: P/E 11, then +13.1% a year Aug 1943: P/E 11, then +13.8% a year Sep 1943: P/E 11, then +13.0% a year Oct 1943: P/E 11, then +13.4% a year Nov 1943: P/E 11, then +14.2% a year Dec 1943: P/E 12, then +14.2% a year Jan 1944: P/E 13, then +14.2% a year Feb 1944: P/E 13, then +14.5% a year Mar 1944: P/E 13, then +14.4% a year Apr 1944: P/E 13, then +15.1% a year May 1944: P/E 13, then +15.3% a year Jun 1944: P/E 14, then +14.9% a year Jul 1944: P/E 14, then +15.0% a year Aug 1944: P/E 14, then +15.4% a year Sep 1944: P/E 14, then +15.9% a year Oct 1944: P/E 14, then +15.9% a year Nov 1944: P/E 14, then +16.4% a year Dec 1944: P/E 14, then +16.7% a year Jan 1945: P/E 14, then +16.5% a year Feb 1945: P/E 15, then +16.5% a year Mar 1945: P/E 15, then +16.4% a year Apr 1945: P/E 15, then +16.5% a year May 1945: P/E 15, then +16.1% a year Jun 1945: P/E 15, then +16.5% a year Jul 1945: P/E 15, then +17.6% a year Aug 1945: P/E 15, then +17.4% a year Sep 1945: P/E 16, then +17.2% a year Oct 1945: P/E 17, then +16.1% a year Nov 1945: P/E 18, then +16.5% a year Dec 1945: P/E 18, then +16.4% a year Jan 1946: P/E 19, then +15.6% a year Feb 1946: P/E 20, then +15.7% a year Mar 1946: P/E 19, then +16.8% a year Apr 1946: P/E 21, then +16.2% a year May 1946: P/E 22, then +15.8% a year Jun 1946: P/E 22, then +15.8% a year Jul 1946: P/E 21, then +16.8% a year Aug 1946: P/E 20, then +16.9% a year Sep 1946: P/E 17, then +18.4% a year Oct 1946: P/E 16, then +18.5% a year Nov 1946: P/E 15, then +18.4% a year Dec 1946: P/E 14, then +18.2% a year Jan 1947: P/E 13, then +17.9% a year Feb 1947: P/E 13, then +16.9% a year Mar 1947: P/E 12, then +17.6% a year Apr 1947: P/E 11, then +18.2% a year May 1947: P/E 10, then +18.9% a year Jun 1947: P/E 10, then +18.7% a year Jul 1947: P/E 11, then +18.2% a year Aug 1947: P/E 10, then +17.7% a year Sep 1947: P/E 10, then +17.5% a year Oct 1947: P/E 10, then +16.5% a year Nov 1947: P/E 10, then +16.4% a year Dec 1947: P/E 9, then +16.5% a year Jan 1948: P/E 9, then +16.9% a year Feb 1948: P/E 8, then +17.5% a year Mar 1948: P/E 8, then +17.6% a year Apr 1948: P/E 9, then +16.7% a year May 1948: P/E 9, then +16.5% a year Jun 1948: P/E 9, then +16.3% a year Jul 1948: P/E 9, then +16.9% a year Aug 1948: P/E 8, then +17.7% a year Sep 1948: P/E 8, then +18.1% a year Oct 1948: P/E 8, then +18.2% a year Nov 1948: P/E 7, then +19.2% a year Dec 1948: P/E 7, then +19.5% a year Jan 1949: P/E 7, then +19.8% a year Feb 1949: P/E 6, then +20.1% a year Mar 1949: P/E 6, then +20.2% a year Apr 1949: P/E 6, then +20.4% a year May 1949: P/E 6, then +20.6% a year Jun 1949: P/E 6, then +21.2% a year Jul 1949: P/E 6, then +20.9% a year Aug 1949: P/E 6, then +20.4% a year Sep 1949: P/E 6, then +19.7% a year Oct 1949: P/E 7, then +19.4% a year Nov 1949: P/E 7, then +19.2% a year Dec 1949: P/E 7, then +19.2% a year Jan 1950: P/E 7, then +18.8% a year Feb 1950: P/E 7, then +18.0% a year Mar 1950: P/E 7, then +17.7% a year Apr 1950: P/E 7, then +17.5% a year May 1950: P/E 7, then +17.0% a year Jun 1950: P/E 7, then +17.2% a year Jul 1950: P/E 7, then +17.8% a year Aug 1950: P/E 7, then +17.2% a year Sep 1950: P/E 7, then +16.4% a year Oct 1950: P/E 7, then +15.7% a year Nov 1950: P/E 7, then +16.0% a year Dec 1950: P/E 7, then +16.3% a year Jan 1951: P/E 7, then +16.0% a year Feb 1951: P/E 8, then +16.0% a year Mar 1951: P/E 8, then +16.6% a year Apr 1951: P/E 8, then +16.7% a year May 1951: P/E 8, then +16.7% a year Jun 1951: P/E 8, then +16.7% a year Jul 1951: P/E 8, then +16.5% a year Aug 1951: P/E 9, then +16.3% a year Sep 1951: P/E 9, then +15.9% a year Oct 1951: P/E 9, then +16.1% a year Nov 1951: P/E 9, then +16.9% a year Dec 1951: P/E 10, then +16.6% a year Jan 1952: P/E 10, then +15.8% a year Feb 1952: P/E 10, then +16.1% a year Mar 1952: P/E 10, then +16.1% a year Apr 1952: P/E 10, then +15.7% a year May 1952: P/E 10, then +14.8% a year Jun 1952: P/E 10, then +13.1% a year Jul 1952: P/E 11, then +13.0% a year Aug 1952: P/E 11, then +13.2% a year Sep 1952: P/E 11, then +13.3% a year Oct 1952: P/E 10, then +13.1% a year Nov 1952: P/E 10, then +13.5% a year Dec 1952: P/E 11, then +13.5% a year Jan 1953: P/E 11, then +13.9% a year Feb 1953: P/E 11, then +14.2% a year Mar 1953: P/E 11, then +14.0% a year Apr 1953: P/E 10, then +15.1% a year May 1953: P/E 10, then +15.2% a year Jun 1953: P/E 10, then +15.6% a year Jul 1953: P/E 10, then +15.3% a year Aug 1953: P/E 10, then +15.5% a year Sep 1953: P/E 9, then +16.3% a year Oct 1953: P/E 9, then +16.0% a year Nov 1953: P/E 10, then +15.7% a year Dec 1953: P/E 10, then +15.7% a year Jan 1954: P/E 10, then +15.8% a year Feb 1954: P/E 10, then +15.6% a year Mar 1954: P/E 10, then +15.6% a year Apr 1954: P/E 11, then +15.2% a year May 1954: P/E 11, then +14.9% a year Jun 1954: P/E 11, then +14.7% a year Jul 1954: P/E 11, then +14.7% a year Aug 1954: P/E 12, then +14.2% a year Sep 1954: P/E 12, then +14.2% a year Oct 1954: P/E 12, then +14.1% a year Nov 1954: P/E 12, then +13.7% a year Dec 1954: P/E 13, then +13.0% a year Jan 1955: P/E 13, then +13.1% a year Feb 1955: P/E 13, then +12.8% a year Mar 1955: P/E 12, then +12.8% a year Apr 1955: P/E 12, then +12.6% a year May 1955: P/E 12, then +12.8% a year Jun 1955: P/E 12, then +11.6% a year Jul 1955: P/E 13, then +10.8% a year Aug 1955: P/E 13, then +11.1% a year Sep 1955: P/E 13, then +10.9% a year Oct 1955: P/E 12, then +11.8% a year Nov 1955: P/E 13, then +11.1% a year Dec 1955: P/E 13, then +10.9% a year Jan 1956: P/E 12, then +11.4% a year Feb 1956: P/E 12, then +11.3% a year Mar 1956: P/E 13, then +10.1% a year Apr 1956: P/E 13, then +10.3% a year May 1956: P/E 13, then +10.0% a year Jun 1956: P/E 13, then +10.0% a year Jul 1956: P/E 14, then +9.4% a year Aug 1956: P/E 14, then +8.8% a year Sep 1956: P/E 14, then +8.7% a year Oct 1956: P/E 13, then +8.8% a year Nov 1956: P/E 13, then +9.4% a year Dec 1956: P/E 14, then +9.3% a year Jan 1957: P/E 13, then +10.0% a year Feb 1957: P/E 13, then +10.8% a year Mar 1957: P/E 13, then +10.9% a year Apr 1957: P/E 13, then +10.9% a year May 1957: P/E 14, then +10.6% a year Jun 1957: P/E 14, then +10.3% a year Jul 1957: P/E 14, then +10.3% a year Aug 1957: P/E 13, then +11.1% a year Sep 1957: P/E 13, then +11.7% a year Oct 1957: P/E 12, then +12.4% a year Nov 1957: P/E 12, then +12.2% a year Dec 1957: P/E 12, then +12.6% a year Jan 1958: P/E 12, then +12.3% a year Feb 1958: P/E 13, then +11.7% a year Mar 1958: P/E 13, then +11.3% a year Apr 1958: P/E 14, then +12.0% a year May 1958: P/E 15, then +11.9% a year Jun 1958: P/E 15, then +11.9% a year Jul 1958: P/E 16, then +11.6% a year Aug 1958: P/E 16, then +10.9% a year Sep 1958: P/E 17, then +11.0% a year Oct 1958: P/E 18, then +10.8% a year Nov 1958: P/E 18, then +10.7% a year Dec 1958: P/E 19, then +10.6% a year Jan 1959: P/E 19, then +9.7% a year Feb 1959: P/E 18, then +9.8% a year Mar 1959: P/E 18, then +9.2% a year Apr 1959: P/E 18, then +9.3% a year May 1959: P/E 18, then +9.5% a year Jun 1959: P/E 17, then +9.0% a year Jul 1959: P/E 18, then +8.1% a year Aug 1959: P/E 17, then +8.1% a year Sep 1959: P/E 17, then +8.5% a year Oct 1959: P/E 17, then +8.7% a year Nov 1959: P/E 17, then +8.7% a year Dec 1959: P/E 17, then +7.8% a year Jan 1960: P/E 17, then +7.9% a year Feb 1960: P/E 16, then +7.9% a year Mar 1960: P/E 16, then +8.2% a year Apr 1960: P/E 17, then +7.8% a year May 1960: P/E 17, then +6.6% a year Jun 1960: P/E 18, then +6.1% a year Jul 1960: P/E 17, then +6.4% a year Aug 1960: P/E 17, then +6.6% a year Sep 1960: P/E 17, then +7.6% a year Oct 1960: P/E 16, then +8.0% a year Nov 1960: P/E 17, then +7.7% a year Dec 1960: P/E 17, then +8.1% a year Jan 1961: P/E 19, then +8.0% a year Feb 1961: P/E 20, then +8.0% a year Mar 1961: P/E 21, then +7.9% a year Apr 1961: P/E 21, then +8.0% a year May 1961: P/E 22, then +7.7% a year Jun 1961: P/E 22, then +7.7% a year Jul 1961: P/E 22, then +7.6% a year Aug 1961: P/E 22, then +7.0% a year Sep 1961: P/E 22, then +7.4% a year Oct 1961: P/E 22, then +7.0% a year Nov 1961: P/E 23, then +6.0% a year Dec 1961: P/E 22, then +6.7% a year Jan 1962: P/E 21, then +7.5% a year Feb 1962: P/E 21, then +7.5% a year Mar 1962: P/E 21, then +7.8% a year Apr 1962: P/E 20, then +8.2% a year May 1962: P/E 18, then +8.9% a year Jun 1962: P/E 16, then +10.3% a year Jul 1962: P/E 16, then +10.0% a year Aug 1962: P/E 17, then +10.1% a year Sep 1962: P/E 16, then +10.0% a year Oct 1962: P/E 16, then +10.4% a year Nov 1962: P/E 17, then +10.2% a year Dec 1962: P/E 17, then +9.9% a year Jan 1963: P/E 18, then +9.6% a year Feb 1963: P/E 18, then +9.0% a year Mar 1963: P/E 18, then +8.9% a year Apr 1963: P/E 18, then +8.2% a year May 1963: P/E 18, then +7.7% a year Jun 1963: P/E 18, then +7.4% a year Jul 1963: P/E 18, then +7.7% a year Aug 1963: P/E 18, then +7.2% a year Sep 1963: P/E 18, then +7.1% a year Oct 1963: P/E 18, then +7.5% a year Nov 1963: P/E 18, then +6.8% a year Dec 1963: P/E 18, then +5.8% a year Jan 1964: P/E 19, then +5.6% a year Feb 1964: P/E 19, then +5.2% a year Mar 1964: P/E 19, then +5.4% a year Apr 1964: P/E 19, then +4.7% a year May 1964: P/E 19, then +4.3% a year Jun 1964: P/E 19, then +4.4% a year Jul 1964: P/E 19, then +2.8% a year Aug 1964: P/E 19, then +2.5% a year Sep 1964: P/E 19, then +1.2% a year Oct 1964: P/E 19, then +1.2% a year Nov 1964: P/E 19, then +1.5% a year Dec 1964: P/E 18, then +1.1% a year Jan 1965: P/E 19, then +1.6% a year Feb 1965: P/E 19, then +2.5% a year Mar 1965: P/E 19, then +3.0% a year Apr 1965: P/E 19, then +3.0% a year May 1965: P/E 19, then +3.5% a year Jun 1965: P/E 18, then +4.3% a year Jul 1965: P/E 17, then +4.3% a year Aug 1965: P/E 18, then +3.3% a year Sep 1965: P/E 18, then +2.9% a year Oct 1965: P/E 18, then +3.1% a year Nov 1965: P/E 18, then +3.2% a year Dec 1965: P/E 18, then +3.1% a year Jan 1966: P/E 18, then +3.9% a year Feb 1966: P/E 18, then +4.3% a year Mar 1966: P/E 17, then +4.8% a year Apr 1966: P/E 17, then +4.6% a year May 1966: P/E 16, then +5.1% a year Jun 1966: P/E 16, then +5.3% a year Jul 1966: P/E 16, then +5.5% a year Aug 1966: P/E 15, then +6.1% a year Sep 1966: P/E 14, then +6.7% a year Oct 1966: P/E 14, then +6.4% a year Nov 1966: P/E 15, then +5.8% a year Dec 1966: P/E 15, then +6.2% a year Jan 1967: P/E 15, then +5.7% a year Feb 1967: P/E 16, then +5.0% a year Mar 1967: P/E 16, then +4.8% a year Apr 1967: P/E 17, then +4.4% a year May 1967: P/E 17, then +4.2% a year Jun 1967: P/E 17, then +4.4% a year Jul 1967: P/E 17, then +4.3% a year Aug 1967: P/E 18, then +3.9% a year Sep 1967: P/E 18, then +3.6% a year Oct 1967: P/E 18, then +3.4% a year Nov 1967: P/E 17, then +3.8% a year Dec 1967: P/E 18, then +3.5% a year Jan 1968: P/E 18, then +3.1% a year Feb 1968: P/E 17, then +3.5% a year Mar 1968: P/E 16, then +3.7% a year Apr 1968: P/E 17, then +3.4% a year May 1968: P/E 18, then +3.7% a year Jun 1968: P/E 18, then +3.5% a year Jul 1968: P/E 18, then +3.5% a year Aug 1968: P/E 17, then +4.4% a year Sep 1968: P/E 18, then +4.1% a year Oct 1968: P/E 18, then +3.5% a year Nov 1968: P/E 18, then +2.7% a year Dec 1968: P/E 18, then +2.8% a year Jan 1969: P/E 18, then +3.6% a year Feb 1969: P/E 18, then +3.6% a year Mar 1969: P/E 17, then +4.0% a year Apr 1969: P/E 17, then +4.0% a year May 1969: P/E 18, then +3.5% a year Jun 1969: P/E 17, then +4.2% a year Jul 1969: P/E 16, then +4.8% a year Aug 1969: P/E 16, then +5.4% a year Sep 1969: P/E 16, then +5.5% a year Oct 1969: P/E 16, then +5.0% a year Nov 1969: P/E 17, then +4.8% a year Dec 1969: P/E 16, then +5.8% a year Jan 1970: P/E 16, then +6.2% a year Feb 1970: P/E 15, then +7.1% a year Mar 1970: P/E 16, then +5.9% a year Apr 1970: P/E 15, then +6.0% a year May 1970: P/E 14, then +7.8% a year Jun 1970: P/E 14, then +8.6% a year Jul 1970: P/E 14, then +9.1% a year Aug 1970: P/E 14, then +9.1% a year Sep 1970: P/E 15, then +8.7% a year Oct 1970: P/E 16, then +8.8% a year Nov 1970: P/E 16, then +9.3% a year Dec 1970: P/E 18, then +8.4% a year Jan 1971: P/E 18, then +8.0% a year Feb 1971: P/E 19, then +7.2% a year Mar 1971: P/E 19, then +7.3% a year Apr 1971: P/E 20, then +7.1% a year May 1971: P/E 19, then +7.0% a year Jun 1971: P/E 19, then +7.3% a year Jul 1971: P/E 18, then +7.1% a year Aug 1971: P/E 18, then +7.4% a year Sep 1971: P/E 18, then +6.2% a year Oct 1971: P/E 18, then +6.5% a year Nov 1971: P/E 17, then +7.3% a year Dec 1971: P/E 17, then +6.7% a year Jan 1972: P/E 18, then +5.8% a year Feb 1972: P/E 18, then +5.3% a year Mar 1972: P/E 19, then +4.8% a year Apr 1972: P/E 19, then +5.2% a year May 1972: P/E 18, then +5.3% a year Jun 1972: P/E 18, then +4.7% a year Jul 1972: P/E 18, then +4.8% a year Aug 1972: P/E 18, then +4.5% a year Sep 1972: P/E 18, then +5.8% a year Oct 1972: P/E 18, then +6.7% a year Nov 1972: P/E 18, then +6.6% a year Dec 1972: P/E 18, then +6.5% a year Jan 1973: P/E 18, then +6.8% a year Feb 1973: P/E 17, then +7.4% a year Mar 1973: P/E 17, then +8.0% a year Apr 1973: P/E 16, then +8.6% a year May 1973: P/E 15, then +9.3% a year Jun 1973: P/E 14, then +9.7% a year Jul 1973: P/E 14, then +9.7% a year Aug 1973: P/E 14, then +9.6% a year Sep 1973: P/E 14, then +9.7% a year Oct 1973: P/E 14, then +9.4% a year Nov 1973: P/E 13, then +10.0% a year Dec 1973: P/E 12, then +10.8% a year Jan 1974: P/E 12, then +10.8% a year Feb 1974: P/E 11, then +10.4% a year Mar 1974: P/E 12, then +10.0% a year Apr 1974: P/E 11, then +10.6% a year May 1974: P/E 10, then +10.9% a year Jun 1974: P/E 10, then +10.6% a year Jul 1974: P/E 9, then +11.9% a year Aug 1974: P/E 8, then +13.3% a year Sep 1974: P/E 7, then +14.7% a year Oct 1974: P/E 8, then +14.3% a year Nov 1974: P/E 8, then +14.1% a year Dec 1974: P/E 8, then +14.7% a year Jan 1975: P/E 8, then +14.3% a year Feb 1975: P/E 9, then +13.8% a year Mar 1975: P/E 10, then +13.1% a year Apr 1975: P/E 10, then +13.1% a year May 1975: P/E 11, then +12.7% a year Jun 1975: P/E 12, then +12.6% a year Jul 1975: P/E 12, then +12.8% a year Aug 1975: P/E 11, then +13.4% a year Sep 1975: P/E 11, then +13.3% a year Oct 1975: P/E 11, then +12.9% a year Nov 1975: P/E 11, then +13.4% a year Dec 1975: P/E 11, then +14.1% a year Jan 1976: P/E 12, then +13.2% a year Feb 1976: P/E 12, then +13.3% a year Mar 1976: P/E 12, then +13.9% a year Apr 1976: P/E 12, then +14.1% a year May 1976: P/E 11, then +14.2% a year Jun 1976: P/E 11, then +14.5% a year Jul 1976: P/E 11, then +14.0% a year Aug 1976: P/E 11, then +14.3% a year Sep 1976: P/E 11, then +13.7% a year Oct 1976: P/E 11, then +14.1% a year Nov 1976: P/E 10, then +14.5% a year Dec 1976: P/E 11, then +14.3% a year Jan 1977: P/E 10, then +15.1% a year Feb 1977: P/E 10, then +16.1% a year Mar 1977: P/E 10, then +16.6% a year Apr 1977: P/E 10, then +16.6% a year May 1977: P/E 10, then +16.6% a year Jun 1977: P/E 10, then +17.1% a year Jul 1977: P/E 10, then +17.3% a year Aug 1977: P/E 9, then +18.2% a year Sep 1977: P/E 9, then +18.0% a year Oct 1977: P/E 9, then +16.8% a year Nov 1977: P/E 9, then +15.2% a year Dec 1977: P/E 9, then +15.0% a year Jan 1978: P/E 8, then +15.9% a year Feb 1978: P/E 8, then +16.4% a year Mar 1978: P/E 8, then +16.7% a year Apr 1978: P/E 8, then +16.1% a year May 1978: P/E 9, then +15.2% a year Jun 1978: P/E 9, then +15.8% a year Jul 1978: P/E 9, then +15.8% a year Aug 1978: P/E 9, then +14.8% a year Sep 1978: P/E 9, then +14.9% a year Oct 1978: P/E 9, then +15.7% a year Nov 1978: P/E 8, then +16.1% a year Dec 1978: P/E 8, then +16.1% a year Jan 1979: P/E 8, then +16.1% a year Feb 1979: P/E 8, then +16.6% a year Mar 1979: P/E 8, then +16.3% a year Apr 1979: P/E 8, then +16.4% a year May 1979: P/E 7, then +17.1% a year Jun 1979: P/E 7, then +17.2% a year Jul 1979: P/E 7, then +17.4% a year Aug 1979: P/E 7, then +17.3% a year Sep 1979: P/E 7, then +17.2% a year Oct 1979: P/E 7, then +17.6% a year Nov 1979: P/E 7, then +17.5% a year Dec 1979: P/E 7, then +17.3% a year Jan 1980: P/E 7, then +16.6% a year Feb 1980: P/E 8, then +15.8% a year Mar 1980: P/E 7, then +17.2% a year Apr 1980: P/E 7, then +17.4% a year May 1980: P/E 7, then +17.2% a year Jun 1980: P/E 8, then +16.8% a year Jul 1980: P/E 8, then +16.3% a year Aug 1980: P/E 8, then +14.9% a year Sep 1980: P/E 9, then +14.1% a year Oct 1980: P/E 9, then +13.5% a year Nov 1980: P/E 9, then +13.3% a year Dec 1980: P/E 9, then +13.9% a year Jan 1981: P/E 9, then +13.9% a year Feb 1981: P/E 9, then +15.5% a year Mar 1981: P/E 9, then +15.4% a year Apr 1981: P/E 9, then +15.5% a year May 1981: P/E 9, then +15.6% a year Jun 1981: P/E 9, then +15.6% a year Jul 1981: P/E 9, then +15.9% a year Aug 1981: P/E 9, then +16.1% a year Sep 1981: P/E 8, then +17.1% a year Oct 1981: P/E 8, then +16.9% a year Nov 1981: P/E 8, then +16.6% a year Dec 1981: P/E 8, then +16.5% a year Jan 1982: P/E 8, then +17.9% a year Feb 1982: P/E 8, then +18.1% a year Mar 1982: P/E 7, then +18.3% a year Apr 1982: P/E 8, then +17.7% a year May 1982: P/E 8, then +17.9% a year Jun 1982: P/E 8, then +18.4% a year Jul 1982: P/E 8, then +18.6% a year Aug 1982: P/E 8, then +18.6% a year Sep 1982: P/E 9, then +17.3% a year Oct 1982: P/E 10, then +16.1% a year Nov 1982: P/E 11, then +15.9% a year Dec 1982: P/E 11, then +16.2% a year Jan 1983: P/E 11, then +15.7% a year Feb 1983: P/E 12, then +15.7% a year Mar 1983: P/E 12, then +15.5% a year Apr 1983: P/E 13, then +14.9% a year May 1983: P/E 13, then +14.4% a year Jun 1983: P/E 13, then +14.3% a year Jul 1983: P/E 13, then +14.3% a year Aug 1983: P/E 12, then +14.8% a year Sep 1983: P/E 13, then +14.5% a year Oct 1983: P/E 12, then +14.6% a year Nov 1983: P/E 12, then +14.7% a year Dec 1983: P/E 12, then +14.8% a year Jan 1984: P/E 12, then +14.9% a year Feb 1984: P/E 11, then +15.5% a year Mar 1984: P/E 10, then +15.2% a year Apr 1984: P/E 10, then +14.8% a year May 1984: P/E 10, then +14.9% a year Jun 1984: P/E 9, then +15.3% a year Jul 1984: P/E 9, then +15.3% a year Aug 1984: P/E 10, then +14.7% a year Sep 1984: P/E 10, then +14.6% a year Oct 1984: P/E 10, then +14.6% a year Nov 1984: P/E 10, then +14.4% a year Dec 1984: P/E 10, then +14.4% a year Jan 1985: P/E 10, then +14.1% a year Feb 1985: P/E 11, then +13.9% a year Mar 1985: P/E 11, then +14.3% a year Apr 1985: P/E 11, then +14.5% a year May 1985: P/E 12, then +14.6% a year Jun 1985: P/E 12, then +14.6% a year Jul 1985: P/E 12, then +14.8% a year Aug 1985: P/E 12, then +15.1% a year Sep 1985: P/E 12, then +15.7% a year Oct 1985: P/E 12, then +15.6% a year Nov 1985: P/E 13, then +15.2% a year Dec 1985: P/E 14, then +15.0% a year Jan 1986: P/E 14, then +14.9% a year Feb 1986: P/E 15, then +14.9% a year Mar 1986: P/E 16, then +14.2% a year Apr 1986: P/E 16, then +13.9% a year May 1986: P/E 16, then +14.2% a year Jun 1986: P/E 17, then +13.9% a year Jul 1986: P/E 16, then +13.7% a year Aug 1986: P/E 17, then +13.8% a year Sep 1986: P/E 16, then +14.3% a year Oct 1986: P/E 16, then +14.8% a year Nov 1986: P/E 17, then +15.0% a year Dec 1986: P/E 17, then +14.9% a year Jan 1987: P/E 18, then +14.6% a year Feb 1987: P/E 19, then +14.3% a year Mar 1987: P/E 19, then +13.8% a year Apr 1987: P/E 19, then +13.5% a year May 1987: P/E 20, then +14.4% a year Jun 1987: P/E 21, then +14.5% a year Jul 1987: P/E 21, then +14.8% a year Aug 1987: P/E 21, then +14.2% a year Sep 1987: P/E 20, then +14.6% a year Oct 1987: P/E 17, then +16.3% a year Nov 1987: P/E 14, then +17.7% a year Dec 1987: P/E 14, then +18.1% a year Jan 1988: P/E 14, then +17.7% a year Feb 1988: P/E 14, then +18.0% a year Mar 1988: P/E 14, then +18.3% a year Apr 1988: P/E 13, then +18.8% a year May 1988: P/E 12, then +19.0% a year Jun 1988: P/E 12, then +18.3% a year Jul 1988: P/E 12, then +18.9% a year Aug 1988: P/E 12, then +18.2% a year Sep 1988: P/E 12, then +17.4% a year Oct 1988: P/E 12, then +17.1% a year Nov 1988: P/E 12, then +18.6% a year Dec 1988: P/E 12, then +18.8% a year Jan 1989: P/E 12, then +19.0% a year Feb 1989: P/E 12, then +18.6% a year Mar 1989: P/E 12, then +18.9% a year Apr 1989: P/E 12, then +19.0% a year May 1989: P/E 12, then +18.5% a year Jun 1989: P/E 13, then +18.1% a year Jul 1989: P/E 13, then +18.3% a year Aug 1989: P/E 14, then +17.3% a year Sep 1989: P/E 15, then +17.1% a year Oct 1989: P/E 15, then +17.0% a year Nov 1989: P/E 15, then +18.0% a year Dec 1989: P/E 15, then +18.0% a year Jan 1990: P/E 15, then +18.2% a year Feb 1990: P/E 15, then +18.2% a year Mar 1990: P/E 16, then +18.4% a year Apr 1990: P/E 16, then +18.5% a year May 1990: P/E 16, then +17.7% a year Jun 1990: P/E 17, then +17.7% a year Jul 1990: P/E 17, then +17.8% a year Aug 1990: P/E 15, then +18.9% a year Sep 1990: P/E 15, then +19.3% a year Oct 1990: P/E 14, then +18.9% a year Nov 1990: P/E 15, then +18.5% a year Dec 1990: P/E 15, then +17.6% a year Jan 1991: P/E 15, then +17.7% a year Feb 1991: P/E 17, then +16.2% a year Mar 1991: P/E 18, then +14.7% a year Apr 1991: P/E 19, then +14.5% a year May 1991: P/E 19, then +15.3% a year Jun 1991: P/E 19, then +15.0% a year Jul 1991: P/E 20, then +14.6% a year Aug 1991: P/E 21, then +14.1% a year Sep 1991: P/E 22, then +12.7% a year Oct 1991: P/E 22, then +13.1% a year Oct 1992: P/E 22, then +9.6% a year Nov 1992: P/E 23, then +10.0% a year Dec 1992: P/E 23, then +9.6% a year Jan 1993: P/E 23, then +9.5% a year Feb 1993: P/E 23, then +8.6% a year Mar 1993: P/E 23, then +8.5% a year Apr 1993: P/E 23, then +9.2% a year May 1993: P/E 23, then +9.7% a year Jul 1993: P/E 23, then +10.3% a year Aug 1993: P/E 23, then +10.1% a year Sep 1993: P/E 23, then +10.3% a year Oct 1993: P/E 22, then +10.3% a year Nov 1993: P/E 22, then +10.5% a year Dec 1993: P/E 21, then +10.7% a year Jan 1994: P/E 21, then +11.1% a year Feb 1994: P/E 21, then +11.2% a year Mar 1994: P/E 20, then +11.2% a year Apr 1994: P/E 19, then +11.7% a year May 1994: P/E 19, then +11.3% a year Jun 1994: P/E 18, then +11.4% a year Jul 1994: P/E 17, then +11.2% a year Aug 1994: P/E 17, then +10.8% a year Sep 1994: P/E 17, then +11.0% a year Oct 1994: P/E 16, then +11.0% a year Nov 1994: P/E 16, then +11.6% a year Dec 1994: P/E 15, then +12.0% a year Jan 1995: P/E 15, then +11.6% a year Feb 1995: P/E 15, then +11.4% a year Mar 1995: P/E 15, then +11.1% a year Apr 1995: P/E 15, then +10.4% a year May 1995: P/E 15, then +10.2% a year Jun 1995: P/E 16, then +10.1% a year Jul 1995: P/E 16, then +9.9% a year Aug 1995: P/E 16, then +9.9% a year Sep 1995: P/E 16, then +9.5% a year Oct 1995: P/E 17, then +9.1% a year Nov 1995: P/E 17, then +9.3% a year Dec 1995: P/E 18, then +9.2% a year Jan 1996: P/E 18, then +9.3% a year Feb 1996: P/E 19, then +8.7% a year Mar 1996: P/E 19, then +8.9% a year Apr 1996: P/E 19, then +8.9% a year May 1996: P/E 19, then +8.6% a year Jun 1996: P/E 19, then +8.2% a year Jul 1996: P/E 18, then +8.6% a year Aug 1996: P/E 19, then +8.5% a year Sep 1996: P/E 19, then +8.6% a year Oct 1996: P/E 19, then +8.5% a year Nov 1996: P/E 19, then +8.2% a year Dec 1996: P/E 19, then +8.3% a year Jan 1997: P/E 20, then +8.1% a year Feb 1997: P/E 20, then +7.8% a year Mar 1997: P/E 20, then +7.6% a year Apr 1997: P/E 19, then +8.4% a year May 1997: P/E 21, then +7.8% a year Jun 1997: P/E 22, then +7.3% a year Jul 1997: P/E 23, then +6.7% a year Aug 1997: P/E 23, then +6.2% a year Dec 2003: P/E 22, then +7.4% a year Jan 2004: P/E 23, then +7.0% a year Feb 2004: P/E 22, then +6.9% a year Mar 2004: P/E 22, then +7.3% a year Apr 2004: P/E 21, then +7.2% a year May 2004: P/E 20, then +7.7% a year Jun 2004: P/E 20, then +7.7% a year Jul 2004: P/E 20, then +8.1% a year Aug 2004: P/E 19, then +8.2% a year Sep 2004: P/E 19, then +8.1% a year Oct 2004: P/E 19, then +7.8% a year Nov 2004: P/E 20, then +7.9% a year Dec 2004: P/E 20, then +7.7% a year Jan 2005: P/E 20, then +7.7% a year Feb 2005: P/E 20, then +7.8% a year Mar 2005: P/E 20, then +7.9% a year Apr 2005: P/E 19, then +8.2% a year May 2005: P/E 19, then +8.2% a year Jun 2005: P/E 19, then +7.9% a year Jul 2005: P/E 19, then +7.7% a year Aug 2005: P/E 19, then +7.4% a year Sep 2005: P/E 18, then +6.9% a year Oct 2005: P/E 18, then +7.6% a year Nov 2005: P/E 18, then +7.5% a year Dec 2005: P/E 18, then +7.2% a year Jan 2006: P/E 18, then +6.3% a year Feb 2006: P/E 18, then +6.3% a year Mar 2006: P/E 18, then +6.8% a year Apr 2006: P/E 18, then +7.0% a year May 2006: P/E 17, then +7.0% a year Jun 2006: P/E 17, then +7.4% a year Jul 2006: P/E 17, then +7.7% a year Aug 2006: P/E 17, then +7.6% a year Sep 2006: P/E 17, then +7.3% a year Oct 2006: P/E 17, then +6.8% a year Nov 2006: P/E 17, then +6.8% a year Dec 2006: P/E 17, then +7.0% a year Jan 2007: P/E 17, then +7.0% a year Feb 2007: P/E 17, then +7.1% a year Mar 2007: P/E 17, then +7.6% a year Apr 2007: P/E 17, then +7.1% a year May 2007: P/E 18, then +7.0% a year Jun 2007: P/E 18, then +7.1% a year Jul 2007: P/E 18, then +7.1% a year Aug 2007: P/E 18, then +7.6% a year Sep 2007: P/E 19, then +7.5% a year Oct 2007: P/E 21, then +7.5% a year Nov 2007: P/E 21, then +8.2% a year Dec 2007: P/E 22, then +8.3% a year Jan 2008: P/E 21, then +9.6% a year Feb 2008: P/E 22, then +9.4% a year Mar 2008: P/E 22, then +9.8% a year Dec 2009: P/E 22, then +13.3% a year Jan 2010: P/E 21, then +13.5% a year Feb 2010: P/E 19, then +13.9% a year Mar 2010: P/E 19, then +10.9% a year Apr 2010: P/E 19, then +10.9% a year May 2010: P/E 17, then +12.2% a year Jun 2010: P/E 16, then +13.3% a year Jul 2010: P/E 16, then +13.7% a year Aug 2010: P/E 15, then +14.3% a year Sep 2010: P/E 16, then +13.8% a year Oct 2010: P/E 16, then +13.5% a year Nov 2010: P/E 16, then +13.7% a year Dec 2010: P/E 16, then +13.8% a year Jan 2011: P/E 16, then +13.7% a year Feb 2011: P/E 17, then +13.6% a year Mar 2011: P/E 16, then +13.8% a year Apr 2011: P/E 16, then +14.2% a year May 2011: P/E 16, then +14.2% a year Jun 2011: P/E 15, then +14.9% a year Jul 2011: P/E 16, then +14.9% a year Aug 2011: P/E 14, then +16.4% a year Sep 2011: P/E 13, then +16.5% a year Oct 2011: P/E 14, then +16.2% a year Nov 2011: P/E 14, then +16.5% a year Dec 2011: P/E 14, then +16.4% a year Jan 2012: P/E 15, then +15.6% a year Feb 2012: P/E 15, then +14.8% a year Mar 2012: P/E 16, then +14.3% a year Apr 2012: P/E 16, then +14.4% a year May 2012: P/E 15, then +13.8% a year Jun 2012: P/E 15, then +13.5% a year Jul 2012: P/E 16, then +13.3% a year Aug 2012: P/E 16, then +13.6% a year Sep 2012: P/E 17, then +12.4% a year Oct 2012: P/E 17, then +12.1% a year Nov 2012: P/E 16, then +13.0% a year Dec 2012: P/E 16, then +12.7% a year Jan 2013: P/E 17, then +12.4% a year Feb 2013: P/E 17, then +12.5% a year Mar 2013: P/E 18, then +11.9% a year Apr 2013: P/E 18, then +12.2% a year May 2013: P/E 18, then +11.8% a year Jun 2013: P/E 18, then +12.4% a year Jul 2013: P/E 18, then +12.5% a year Aug 2013: P/E 18, then +12.3% a year Sep 2013: P/E 18, then +12.3% a year Sep 1894: P/E 24, then +9.5% a year Oct 1894: P/E 25, then +10.5% a year Nov 1894: P/E 26, then +11.0% a year Dec 1894: P/E 27, then +11.2% a year Jan 1895: P/E 25, then +11.6% a year Feb 1895: P/E 24, then +12.2% a year Apr 1895: P/E 23, then +11.9% a year May 1895: P/E 23, then +10.8% a year Dec 1921: P/E 25, then +6.9% a year Jun 1933: P/E 24, then +7.2% a year Jul 1933: P/E 26, then +6.5% a year Aug 1933: P/E 25, then +6.6% a year Sep 1933: P/E 24, then +6.9% a year Jan 1934: P/E 24, then +6.8% a year Feb 1934: P/E 25, then +6.0% a year Mar 1934: P/E 24, then +6.9% a year Apr 1934: P/E 24, then +6.5% a year Nov 1991: P/E 23, then +13.6% a year Dec 1991: P/E 24, then +13.7% a year Jan 1992: P/E 26, then +12.8% a year Feb 1992: P/E 26, then +12.5% a year Mar 1992: P/E 25, then +13.2% a year Apr 1992: P/E 25, then +12.8% a year May 1992: P/E 25, then +12.2% a year Jun 1992: P/E 24, then +11.7% a year Jul 1992: P/E 24, then +10.2% a year Aug 1992: P/E 24, then +10.2% a year Sep 1992: P/E 23, then +9.6% a year Jun 1993: P/E 23, then +10.2% a year Sep 1997: P/E 23, then +6.4% a year Oct 1997: P/E 24, then +6.6% a year Nov 1997: P/E 23, then +6.2% a year Dec 1997: P/E 24, then +6.0% a year Jan 1998: P/E 24, then +5.3% a year Feb 1998: P/E 26, then +4.5% a year Mar 1998: P/E 27, then +3.6% a year Apr 1998: P/E 28, then +3.7% a year May 1998: P/E 28, then +4.0% a year Jun 1998: P/E 28, then +3.5% a year Jul 1998: P/E 30, then +2.5% a year Aug 1998: P/E 28, then +3.4% a year Sep 1998: P/E 27, then +3.4% a year Oct 1998: P/E 27, then +1.0% a year Nov 1998: P/E 30, then -1.0% a year Dec 1998: P/E 32, then -1.4% a year Jan 1999: P/E 33, then -2.0% a year Feb 1999: P/E 33, then -2.7% a year Mar 1999: P/E 33, then -3.5% a year Apr 1999: P/E 34, then -2.8% a year May 1999: P/E 33, then -2.1% a year Jun 1999: P/E 32, then -1.8% a year Jul 1999: P/E 33, then -2.1% a year Aug 1999: P/E 31, then -1.0% a year Sep 1999: P/E 30, then -0.6% a year Oct 1999: P/E 29, then -0.2% a year Nov 1999: P/E 30, then -0.7% a year Dec 1999: P/E 30, then -0.7% a year Jan 2000: P/E 29, then -0.6% a year Feb 2000: P/E 28, then -0.6% a year Mar 2000: P/E 28, then -0.4% a year Apr 2000: P/E 29, then -0.2% a year May 2000: P/E 27, then -0.5% a year Jun 2000: P/E 28, then -1.2% a year Jul 2000: P/E 28, then -1.3% a year Aug 2000: P/E 28, then -1.3% a year Sep 2000: P/E 27, then -0.8% a year Oct 2000: P/E 26, then +0.1% a year Nov 2000: P/E 27, then +0.5% a year Dec 2000: P/E 27, then +1.2% a year Jan 2001: P/E 28, then +1.5% a year Feb 2001: P/E 28, then +2.0% a year Mar 2001: P/E 26, then +2.9% a year Apr 2001: P/E 28, then +3.1% a year May 2001: P/E 32, then +2.4% a year Jun 2001: P/E 34, then +2.3% a year Jul 2001: P/E 35, then +2.9% a year Aug 2001: P/E 38, then +2.0% a year Sep 2001: P/E 37, then +3.1% a year Oct 2001: P/E 40, then +3.1% a year Nov 2001: P/E 44, then +2.8% a year Dec 2001: P/E 46, then +2.8% a year Jan 2002: P/E 46, then +3.3% a year Feb 2002: P/E 45, then +4.1% a year Mar 2002: P/E 47, then +3.9% a year Apr 2002: P/E 44, then +4.2% a year May 2002: P/E 41, then +4.2% a year Jun 2002: P/E 38, then +4.7% a year Jul 2002: P/E 32, then +6.2% a year Aug 2002: P/E 32, then +6.5% a year Sep 2002: P/E 29, then +7.3% a year Oct 2002: P/E 29, then +7.4% a year Nov 2002: P/E 32, then +6.4% a year Dec 2002: P/E 33, then +6.8% a year Jan 2003: P/E 31, then +7.3% a year Feb 2003: P/E 28, then +8.2% a year Mar 2003: P/E 28, then +8.4% a year Apr 2003: P/E 28, then +8.0% a year May 2003: P/E 28, then +7.9% a year Jun 2003: P/E 29, then +7.2% a year Jul 2003: P/E 28, then +7.5% a year Aug 2003: P/E 27, then +7.5% a year Sep 2003: P/E 26, then +7.3% a year Oct 2003: P/E 25, then +7.3% a year Nov 2003: P/E 23, then +7.6% a year Apr 2008: P/E 24, then +9.1% a year May 2008: P/E 26, then +9.0% a year Jun 2008: P/E 26, then +9.8% a year Jul 2008: P/E 25, then +10.6% a year Aug 2008: P/E 27, then +10.7% a year Sep 2008: P/E 26, then +11.4% a year Oct 2008: P/E 27, then +13.5% a year Nov 2008: P/E 35, then +14.3% a year Dec 2008: P/E 59, then +13.7% a year Jan 2009: P/E 71, then +14.0% a year Feb 2009: P/E 84, then +15.4% a year Mar 2009: P/E 110, then +16.3% a year Apr 2009: P/E 120, then +15.4% a year May 2009: P/E 124, then +14.5% a year Jun 2009: P/E 123, then +14.3% a year Jul 2009: P/E 102, then +14.6% a year Aug 2009: P/E 93, then +13.3% a year Sep 2009: P/E 83, then +13.3% a year Oct 2009: P/E 42, then +13.0% a year Nov 2009: P/E 29, then +13.3% a year Starting P/E P/E above 45 is drawn at the right edge. Returns are yearly averages with dividends reinvested, before inflation.
Why the other cases did better. The 60 other months at 23 or more came from 1894, 1895, 1921, 1933, 1934, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2003, 2008 and 2009. Every one was followed by 6% to 16% a year .
Most of them came during or just after a fall in company profits. In 1921 profits were 64% lower than a year before. In 2008 and 2009 they fell by up to 89%.
A small profit makes the P/E look high, even when prices have already fallen.
In 1999 and 2000, profits were mostly rising. Prices were high because people paid a lot, not because profits had shrunk.
Why this does not overturn the chart. In a slump, forecasts usually expect profits to recover. So on the chart’s forward P/E, those years would probably not count as 23 times at all.
They explain the pattern. They do not disprove the chart.
What it means today. Price still matters. Our year 2000 experiment uses a stricter measure, CAPE, and finds the same pattern: pricier starts, slower decades.
What the record cannot do is promise a number. A high P/E has come with ten years of near zero once. It has also come with ten years of double digits.
Prices were high again in 2020 and 2021, with a trailing P/E of 24 to 39 in Shiller’s data. Anyone who started then will not know their ten-year result until 2030 or 2031.
If high prices worry you, spreading purchases out is one answer. See what the timing tests found .
Where the numbers come from. P/E and ten-year returns: Robert Shiller’s monthly S&P data , January 1871 to September 2023. P/E is the monthly price over the last twelve months of profits. The last start with a full ten years is September 2013: 1,713 months in all.Second check: we recomputed every ten-year return from 1988 using the S&P 500 total return index. On average the two sources differed by 0.3 percentage points.The chart: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Guide to the Markets, UK The claim: transcribed from the clip.Which months were near zero: ten-year returns from month-end S&P 500 total return index values (^SP500TR), starts from January 1988 to September 2016.More detail is in our method notes .
