The most expensive month on record. One way to judge how expensive shares are is to compare the price with ten years of company earnings, adjusted for inflation. Economists call this CAPE.
In about 7 out of 10 months since 1881, the S&P 500’s CAPE sat between 10 and 25. In December 1999 it reached 44 , the highest in the records. January 2000 was barely lower, at 43.8.
Two investors, same start. Both used the SPY fund, which tracks the S&P 500, with dividends reinvested. All figures are before inflation.
All at once Put in US$10,000 once, on 3 January 2000. Nothing more after that.
US$9,126
Worth this at the end of 2009. Ten years on, still less than the US$10,000 put in.
A little each month Put in US$100 a month for ten years. US$12,000 in total.
US$12,769
Worth this at the end of 2009. Ahead, because many purchases came after prices fell.
Prices fell sharply from 2000 to 2002 and again in 2008. Monthly buying kept going through both falls, buying more units when they were cheap.
This is not a fair race. One put in US$10,000 on day one. The other put in US$12,000 over ten years. It shows two ways people really invest, not which one wins.
How deep, and how long? The US$10,000 hit its lowest point on 9 March 2009, at US$5,451 . It first climbed back to US$10,000 in April 2010. It dipped below again, and stayed above for good from late November 2011.
A bad start cost a decade. It did not cost everything. The US$10,000 put in at the top was worth US$85,645 by 9 October 2026.
The monthly investor stopped adding in 2009. Their US$12,000 was worth US$119,831 by the same date.
Pricier starts, slower decades. Was 2000 a one-off? Each dot below is one month. It shows how expensive the market was that month, and the yearly return over the next ten years.
Neighbouring dots share almost all of their ten years, so they are not separate tests. Treat the pattern as one long history.
Starting price against the next ten years
Each month from 1881 to 2013: how expensive the S&P 500 was, against its yearly return over the next ten years. Higher prices were followed by lower returns on average. -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 10 20 30 40 Jan 1881: CAPE 18, then +2.6% a year Feb 1881: CAPE 18, then +2.7% a year Mar 1881: CAPE 18, then +2.4% a year Apr 1881: CAPE 18, then +2.8% a year May 1881: CAPE 19, then +2.3% a year Jun 1881: CAPE 19, then +2.0% a year Jul 1881: CAPE 18, then +2.2% a year Aug 1881: CAPE 17, then +2.8% a year Sep 1881: CAPE 17, then +3.5% a year Oct 1881: CAPE 16, then +3.6% a year Nov 1881: CAPE 16, then +3.4% a year Dec 1881: CAPE 16, then +4.0% a year Jan 1882: CAPE 16, then +4.3% a year Feb 1882: CAPE 15, then +4.6% a year Mar 1882: CAPE 15, then +4.7% a year Apr 1882: CAPE 15, then +4.7% a year May 1882: CAPE 15, then +4.8% a year Jun 1882: CAPE 14, then +4.8% a year Jul 1882: CAPE 15, then +4.2% a year Aug 1882: CAPE 16, then +4.0% a year Sep 1882: CAPE 16, then +3.6% a year Oct 1882: CAPE 16, then +4.1% a year Nov 1882: CAPE 15, then +4.5% a year Dec 1882: CAPE 15, then +4.4% a year Jan 1883: CAPE 15, then +4.6% a year Feb 1883: CAPE 15, then +4.6% a year Mar 1883: CAPE 15, then +4.1% a year Apr 1883: CAPE 15, then +3.9% a year May 1883: CAPE 15, then +3.1% a year Jun 1883: CAPE 16, then +2.5% a year Jul 1883: CAPE 16, then +1.7% a year Aug 1883: CAPE 15, then +1.9% a year Sep 1883: CAPE 15, then +2.5% a year Oct 1883: CAPE 15, then +3.1% a year Nov 1883: CAPE 15, then +3.1% a year Dec 1883: CAPE 15, then +2.9% a year Jan 1884: CAPE 14, then +3.0% a year Feb 1884: CAPE 15, then +2.9% a year Mar 1884: CAPE 15, then +3.2% a year Apr 1884: CAPE 14, then +3.8% a year May 1884: CAPE 13, then +4.3% a year Jun 1884: CAPE 13, then +4.6% a year Jul 1884: CAPE 13, then +4.3% a year Aug 1884: CAPE 14, then +4.1% a year Sep 1884: CAPE 14, then +4.5% a year Oct 1884: CAPE 13, then +4.5% a year Nov 1884: CAPE 13, then +4.8% a year Dec 1884: CAPE 13, then +4.7% a year Jan 1885: CAPE 13, then +4.8% a year Feb 1885: CAPE 13, then +4.3% a year Mar 1885: CAPE 14, then +4.2% a year Apr 1885: CAPE 14, then +4.7% a year May 1885: CAPE 14, then +5.3% a year Jun 1885: CAPE 14, then +5.6% a year Jul 1885: CAPE 14, then +5.2% a year Aug 1885: CAPE 15, then +4.8% a year Sep 1885: CAPE 15, then +5.0% a year Oct 1885: CAPE 16, then +4.2% a year Nov 1885: CAPE 17, then +3.2% a year Dec 1885: CAPE 16, then +2.7% a year Jan 1886: CAPE 17, then +2.5% a year Feb 1886: CAPE 17, then +2.8% a year Mar 1886: CAPE 17, then +2.8% a year Apr 1886: CAPE 17, then +3.0% a year May 1886: CAPE 17, then +3.2% a year Jun 1886: CAPE 18, then +2.6% a year Jul 1886: CAPE 18, then +1.7% a year Aug 1886: CAPE 18, then +1.1% a year Sep 1886: CAPE 18, then +1.3% a year Oct 1886: CAPE 19, then +1.3% a year Nov 1886: CAPE 19, then +1.7% a year Dec 1886: CAPE 18, then +1.6% a year Jan 1887: CAPE 18, then +1.7% a year Feb 1887: CAPE 17, then +1.7% a year Mar 1887: CAPE 17, then +1.5% a year Apr 1887: CAPE 18, then +0.9% a year May 1887: CAPE 18, then +0.8% a year Jun 1887: CAPE 18, then +1.6% a year Jul 1887: CAPE 17, then +2.3% a year Aug 1887: CAPE 17, then +3.2% a year Sep 1887: CAPE 17, then +3.8% a year Oct 1887: CAPE 16, then +3.8% a year Nov 1887: CAPE 16, then +3.2% a year Dec 1887: CAPE 15, then +3.5% a year Jan 1888: CAPE 15, then +3.7% a year Feb 1888: CAPE 15, then +3.7% a year Mar 1888: CAPE 15, then +3.6% a year Apr 1888: CAPE 15, then +3.4% a year May 1888: CAPE 15, then +3.9% a year Jun 1888: CAPE 15, then +4.6% a year Jul 1888: CAPE 15, then +4.4% a year Aug 1888: CAPE 16, then +4.5% a year Sep 1888: CAPE 16, then +4.3% a year Oct 1888: CAPE 16, then +4.1% a year Nov 1888: CAPE 15, then +4.7% a year Dec 1888: CAPE 15, then +5.5% a year Jan 1889: CAPE 16, then +6.0% a year Feb 1889: CAPE 16, then +6.3% a year Mar 1889: CAPE 16, then +6.7% a year Apr 1889: CAPE 16, then +6.8% a year May 1889: CAPE 17, then +6.1% a year Jun 1889: CAPE 17, then +5.6% a year Jul 1889: CAPE 17, then +6.2% a year Aug 1889: CAPE 17, then +6.3% a year Sep 1889: CAPE 17, then +6.0% a year Oct 1889: CAPE 17, then +6.1% a year Nov 1889: CAPE 17, then +6.4% a year Dec 1889: CAPE 17, then +5.7% a year Jan 1890: CAPE 17, then +5.7% a year Feb 1890: CAPE 17, then +6.0% a year Mar 1890: CAPE 17, then +6.2% a year Apr 1890: CAPE 17, then +6.1% a year May 1890: CAPE 18, then +5.1% a year Jun 1890: CAPE 18, then +4.9% a year Jul 1890: CAPE 18, then +5.0% a year Aug 1890: CAPE 17, then +5.4% a year Sep 1890: CAPE 16, then +5.3% a year Oct 1890: CAPE 15, then +6.2% a year Nov 1890: CAPE 15, then +7.8% a year Dec 1890: CAPE 14, then +8.7% a year Jan 1891: CAPE 15, then +8.4% a year Feb 1891: CAPE 15, then +8.6% a year Mar 1891: CAPE 15, then +9.1% a year Apr 1891: CAPE 15, then +9.7% a year May 1891: CAPE 16, then +9.1% a year Jun 1891: CAPE 16, then +10.4% a year Jul 1891: CAPE 16, then +9.8% a year Aug 1891: CAPE 16, then +9.6% a year Sep 1891: CAPE 18, then +8.7% a year Oct 1891: CAPE 18, then +8.6% a year Nov 1891: CAPE 18, then +8.9% a year Dec 1891: CAPE 18, then +8.4% a year Jan 1892: CAPE 19, then +8.5% a year Feb 1892: CAPE 19, then +8.6% a year Mar 1892: CAPE 20, then +8.4% a year Apr 1892: CAPE 20, then +8.8% a year May 1892: CAPE 20, then +8.8% a year Jun 1892: CAPE 20, then +8.8% a year Jul 1892: CAPE 19, then +9.0% a year Aug 1892: CAPE 19, then +9.2% a year Sep 1892: CAPE 19, then +9.4% a year Oct 1892: CAPE 19, then +8.9% a year Nov 1892: CAPE 18, then +8.5% a year Dec 1892: CAPE 18, then +8.3% a year Jan 1893: CAPE 18, then +8.7% a year Feb 1893: CAPE 17, then +8.8% a year Mar 1893: CAPE 17, then +8.8% a year Apr 1893: CAPE 17, then +8.3% a year May 1893: CAPE 16, then +9.1% a year Jun 1893: CAPE 15, then +9.0% a year Jul 1893: CAPE 14, then +9.6% a year Aug 1893: CAPE 15, then +9.5% a year Sep 1893: CAPE 15, then +8.4% a year Oct 1893: CAPE 15, then +7.8% a year Nov 1893: CAPE 16, then +7.7% a year Dec 1893: CAPE 16, then +8.5% a year Jan 1894: CAPE 16, then +8.9% a year Feb 1894: CAPE 16, then +8.5% a year Mar 1894: CAPE 17, then +8.1% a year Apr 1894: CAPE 17, then +8.2% a year May 1894: CAPE 17, then +8.4% a year Jun 1894: CAPE 17, then +8.6% a year Jul 1894: CAPE 16, then +9.2% a year Aug 1894: CAPE 16, then +9.2% a year Sep 1894: CAPE 17, then +9.5% a year Oct 1894: CAPE 17, then +10.5% a year Nov 1894: CAPE 17, then +11.0% a year Dec 1894: CAPE 17, then +11.2% a year Jan 1895: CAPE 17, then +11.6% a year Feb 1895: CAPE 16, then +12.2% a year Mar 1895: CAPE 16, then +12.5% a year Apr 1895: CAPE 16, then +11.9% a year May 1895: CAPE 17, then +10.8% a year Jun 1895: CAPE 17, then +10.7% a year Jul 1895: CAPE 18, then +10.9% a year Aug 1895: CAPE 18, then +11.2% a year Sep 1895: CAPE 18, then +11.2% a year Oct 1895: CAPE 18, then +11.5% a year Nov 1895: CAPE 17, then +11.8% a year Dec 1895: CAPE 17, then +12.7% a year Jan 1896: CAPE 17, then +13.2% a year Feb 1896: CAPE 18, then +12.7% a year Mar 1896: CAPE 17, then +12.6% a year Apr 1896: CAPE 18, then +12.3% a year May 1896: CAPE 18, then +12.1% a year Jun 1896: CAPE 18, then +12.4% a year Jul 1896: CAPE 17, then +12.9% a year Aug 1896: CAPE 16, then +14.3% a year Sep 1896: CAPE 17, then +14.1% a year Oct 1896: CAPE 16, then +13.5% a year Nov 1896: CAPE 17, then +13.0% a year Dec 1896: CAPE 17, then +13.3% a year Jan 1897: CAPE 17, then +12.9% a year Feb 1897: CAPE 17, then +12.7% a year Mar 1897: CAPE 17, then +11.5% a year Apr 1897: CAPE 17, then +11.9% a year May 1897: CAPE 17, then +11.5% a year Jun 1897: CAPE 18, then +10.6% a year Jul 1897: CAPE 19, then +10.6% a year Aug 1897: CAPE 19, then +9.0% a year Sep 1897: CAPE 19, then +8.4% a year Oct 1897: CAPE 19, then +7.6% a year Nov 1897: CAPE 18, then +7.3% a year Dec 1897: CAPE 19, then +7.7% a year Jan 1898: CAPE 19, then +7.8% a year Feb 1898: CAPE 19, then +7.5% a year Mar 1898: CAPE 18, then +8.4% a year Apr 1898: CAPE 18, then +9.2% a year May 1898: CAPE 18, then +9.1% a year Jun 1898: CAPE 20, then +8.7% a year Jul 1898: CAPE 20, then +9.1% a year Aug 1898: CAPE 21, then +9.2% a year Sep 1898: CAPE 20, then +9.1% a year Oct 1898: CAPE 20, then +9.4% a year Nov 1898: CAPE 21, then +9.8% a year Dec 1898: CAPE 21, then +9.4% a year Jan 1899: CAPE 23, then +8.7% a year Feb 1899: CAPE 23, then +8.0% a year Mar 1899: CAPE 23, then +8.0% a year Apr 1899: CAPE 23, then +8.3% a year May 1899: CAPE 22, then +9.1% a year Jun 1899: CAPE 21, then +9.6% a year Jul 1899: CAPE 22, then +9.4% a year Aug 1899: CAPE 22, then +9.4% a year Sep 1899: CAPE 21, then +9.5% a year Oct 1899: CAPE 20, then +9.6% a year Nov 1899: CAPE 20, then +9.4% a year Dec 1899: CAPE 19, then +10.3% a year Jan 1900: CAPE 19, then +9.9% a year Feb 1900: CAPE 19, then +9.3% a year Mar 1900: CAPE 19, then +9.5% a year Apr 1900: CAPE 19, then +9.1% a year May 1900: CAPE 18, then +9.5% a year Jun 1900: CAPE 18, then +9.3% a year Jul 1900: CAPE 18, then +8.7% a year Aug 1900: CAPE 18, then +8.8% a year Sep 1900: CAPE 17, then +9.2% a year Oct 1900: CAPE 18, then +9.3% a year Nov 1900: CAPE 19, then +8.4% a year Dec 1900: CAPE 21, then +7.5% a year Jan 1901: CAPE 21, then +7.5% a year Feb 1901: CAPE 22, then +7.4% a year Mar 1901: CAPE 22, then +6.9% a year Apr 1901: CAPE 24, then +6.0% a year May 1901: CAPE 23, then +6.8% a year Jun 1901: CAPE 25, then +6.0% a year Jul 1901: CAPE 23, then +6.7% a year Aug 1901: CAPE 23, then +6.0% a year Sep 1901: CAPE 23, then +5.5% a year Oct 1901: CAPE 22, then +5.7% a year Nov 1901: CAPE 22, then +5.9% a year Dec 1901: CAPE 22, then +6.1% a year Jan 1902: CAPE 22, then +5.9% a year Feb 1902: CAPE 22, then +5.8% a year Mar 1902: CAPE 22, then +6.1% a year Apr 1902: CAPE 23, then +6.0% a year May 1902: CAPE 22, then +6.1% a year Jun 1902: CAPE 22, then +6.1% a year Jul 1902: CAPE 22, then +5.9% a year Aug 1902: CAPE 23, then +5.9% a year Sep 1902: CAPE 23, then +5.9% a year Oct 1902: CAPE 21, then +6.3% a year Nov 1902: CAPE 20, then +6.6% a year Dec 1902: CAPE 20, then +6.4% a year Jan 1903: CAPE 20, then +5.8% a year Feb 1903: CAPE 20, then +5.5% a year Mar 1903: CAPE 20, then +5.8% a year Apr 1903: CAPE 19, then +6.2% a year May 1903: CAPE 19, then +6.1% a year Jun 1903: CAPE 18, then +6.2% a year Jul 1903: CAPE 17, then +6.8% a year Aug 1903: CAPE 16, then +7.5% a year Sep 1903: CAPE 16, then +7.8% a year Oct 1903: CAPE 15, then +7.8% a year Nov 1903: CAPE 15, then +7.5% a year Dec 1903: CAPE 16, then +7.0% a year Jan 1904: CAPE 16, then +7.3% a year Feb 1904: CAPE 15, then +7.7% a year Mar 1904: CAPE 15, then +7.6% a year Apr 1904: CAPE 16, then +7.1% a year May 1904: CAPE 16, then +7.3% a year Jun 1904: CAPE 15, then +7.3% a year Jul 1904: CAPE 16, then +6.3% a year Aug 1904: CAPE 16, then +5.9% a year Sep 1904: CAPE 17, then +5.5% a year Oct 1904: CAPE 18, then +4.9% a year Nov 1904: CAPE 18, then +4.3% a year Dec 1904: CAPE 18, then +3.8% a year Jan 1905: CAPE 18, then +3.8% a year Feb 1905: CAPE 19, then +3.2% a year Mar 1905: CAPE 20, then +3.2% a year Apr 1905: CAPE 19, then +4.1% a year May 1905: CAPE 19, then +4.4% a year Jun 1905: CAPE 19, then +4.4% a year Jul 1905: CAPE 19, then +4.0% a year Aug 1905: CAPE 20, then +4.1% a year Sep 1905: CAPE 20, then +4.5% a year Oct 1905: CAPE 20, then +4.9% a year Nov 1905: CAPE 19, then +5.3% a year Dec 1905: CAPE 20, then +5.1% a year Jan 1906: CAPE 20, then +4.6% a year Feb 1906: CAPE 20, then +4.5% a year Mar 1906: CAPE 19, then +4.8% a year Apr 1906: CAPE 19, then +4.8% a year May 1906: CAPE 18, then +5.3% a year Jun 1906: CAPE 18, then +5.3% a year Jul 1906: CAPE 18, then +5.5% a year Aug 1906: CAPE 19, then +4.8% a year Sep 1906: CAPE 19, then +4.9% a year Oct 1906: CAPE 18, then +5.6% a year Nov 1906: CAPE 18, then +5.6% a year Dec 1906: CAPE 18, then +5.3% a year Jan 1907: CAPE 17, then +5.3% a year Feb 1907: CAPE 16, then +5.1% a year Mar 1907: CAPE 15, then +6.5% a year Apr 1907: CAPE 15, then +6.3% a year May 1907: CAPE 14, then +6.3% a year Jun 1907: CAPE 13, then +6.9% a year Jul 1907: CAPE 14, then +6.2% a year Aug 1907: CAPE 13, then +6.8% a year Sep 1907: CAPE 12, then +6.4% a year Oct 1907: CAPE 11, then +7.0% a year Nov 1907: CAPE 11, then +6.8% a year Dec 1907: CAPE 11, then +5.9% a year Jan 1908: CAPE 12, then +6.1% a year Feb 1908: CAPE 12, then +6.8% a year Mar 1908: CAPE 12, then +6.2% a year Apr 1908: CAPE 12, then +5.6% a year May 1908: CAPE 13, then +5.4% a year Jun 1908: CAPE 13, then +5.4% a year Jul 1908: CAPE 13, then +5.2% a year Aug 1908: CAPE 14, then +4.8% a year Sep 1908: CAPE 14, then +4.9% a year Oct 1908: CAPE 14, then +5.3% a year Nov 1908: CAPE 14, then +4.9% a year Dec 1908: CAPE 15, then +4.4% a year Jan 1909: CAPE 15, then +4.4% a year Feb 1909: CAPE 14, then +4.7% a year Mar 1909: CAPE 14, then +4.9% a year Apr 1909: CAPE 15, then +4.8% a year May 1909: CAPE 15, then +5.2% a year Jun 1909: CAPE 15, then +5.3% a year Jul 1909: CAPE 15, then +5.5% a year Aug 1909: CAPE 15, then +4.5% a year Sep 1909: CAPE 15, then +4.7% a year Oct 1909: CAPE 15, then +5.2% a year Nov 1909: CAPE 15, then +5.0% a year Dec 1909: CAPE 15, then +4.5% a year Jan 1910: CAPE 15, then +4.7% a year Feb 1910: CAPE 14, then +4.2% a year Mar 1910: CAPE 14, then +4.6% a year Apr 1910: CAPE 14, then +4.8% a year May 1910: CAPE 14, then +4.3% a year Jun 1910: CAPE 13, then +4.7% a year Jul 1910: CAPE 12, then +5.2% a year Aug 1910: CAPE 13, then +4.5% a year Sep 1910: CAPE 13, then +4.9% a year Oct 1910: CAPE 14, then +4.4% a year Nov 1910: CAPE 14, then +3.9% a year Dec 1910: CAPE 14, then +3.2% a year Jan 1911: CAPE 14, then +3.5% a year Feb 1911: CAPE 15, then +3.2% a year Mar 1911: CAPE 14, then +3.1% a year Apr 1911: CAPE 15, then +3.2% a year May 1911: CAPE 15, then +3.3% a year Jun 1911: CAPE 15, then +2.3% a year Jul 1911: CAPE 15, then +2.3% a year Aug 1911: CAPE 14, then +2.7% a year Sep 1911: CAPE 13, then +3.5% a year Oct 1911: CAPE 13, then +3.6% a year Nov 1911: CAPE 14, then +3.8% a year Dec 1911: CAPE 14, then +4.1% a year Jan 1912: CAPE 14, then +4.1% a year Feb 1912: CAPE 14, then +4.4% a year Mar 1912: CAPE 14, then +4.5% a year Apr 1912: CAPE 14, then +4.8% a year May 1912: CAPE 14, then +5.2% a year Jun 1912: CAPE 14, then +5.2% a year Jul 1912: CAPE 14, then +5.2% a year Aug 1912: CAPE 14, then +5.4% a year Sep 1912: CAPE 14, then +5.6% a year Oct 1912: CAPE 14, then +5.8% a year Nov 1912: CAPE 14, then +5.4% a year Dec 1912: CAPE 13, then +5.8% a year Jan 1913: CAPE 13, then +6.0% a year Feb 1913: CAPE 13, then +6.9% a year Mar 1913: CAPE 12, then +7.3% a year Apr 1913: CAPE 12, then +6.9% a year May 1913: CAPE 12, then +6.7% a year Jun 1913: CAPE 11, then +6.8% a year Jul 1913: CAPE 12, then +6.3% a year Aug 1913: CAPE 12, then +6.1% a year Sep 1913: CAPE 12, then +6.1% a year Oct 1913: CAPE 11, then +6.2% a year Nov 1913: CAPE 11, then +6.8% a year Dec 1913: CAPE 11, then +7.2% a year Jan 1914: CAPE 12, then +7.1% a year Feb 1914: CAPE 12, then +7.0% a year Mar 1914: CAPE 12, then +7.0% a year Apr 1914: CAPE 12, then +7.1% a year May 1914: CAPE 11, then +7.0% a year Jun 1914: CAPE 11, then +7.2% a year Jul 1914: CAPE 11, then +8.3% a year Aug 1914: CAPE 10, then +8.7% a year Sep 1914: CAPE 11, then +8.6% a year Oct 1914: CAPE 11, then +8.5% a year Nov 1914: CAPE 11, then +9.1% a year Dec 1914: CAPE 10, then +10.1% a year Jan 1915: CAPE 10, then +10.3% a year Feb 1915: CAPE 10, then +10.6% a year Mar 1915: CAPE 11, then +10.0% a year Apr 1915: CAPE 11, then +9.1% a year May 1915: CAPE 11, then +9.7% a year Jun 1915: CAPE 11, then +9.8% a year Jul 1915: CAPE 11, then +10.1% a year Aug 1915: CAPE 12, then +9.8% a year Sep 1915: CAPE 12, then +9.7% a year Oct 1915: CAPE 13, then +9.4% a year Nov 1915: CAPE 13, then +9.4% a year Dec 1915: CAPE 13, then +9.6% a year Jan 1916: CAPE 13, then +9.9% a year Feb 1916: CAPE 12, then +10.1% a year Mar 1916: CAPE 12, then +9.3% a year Apr 1916: CAPE 12, then +9.2% a year May 1916: CAPE 12, then +9.0% a year Jun 1916: CAPE 12, then +9.4% a year Jul 1916: CAPE 12, then +10.0% a year Aug 1916: CAPE 12, then +10.3% a year Sep 1916: CAPE 12, then +10.1% a year Oct 1916: CAPE 12, then +9.5% a year Nov 1916: CAPE 12, then +9.4% a year Dec 1916: CAPE 11, then +10.1% a year Jan 1917: CAPE 11, then +10.2% a year Feb 1917: CAPE 10, then +11.1% a year Mar 1917: CAPE 10, then +10.9% a year Apr 1917: CAPE 10, then +11.3% a year May 1917: CAPE 9, then +12.1% a year Jun 1917: CAPE 9, then +12.0% a year Jul 1917: CAPE 9, then +12.5% a year Aug 1917: CAPE 9, then +13.4% a year Sep 1917: CAPE 8, then +14.6% a year Oct 1917: CAPE 7, then +15.0% a year Nov 1917: CAPE 7, then +16.2% a year Dec 1917: CAPE 6, then +16.8% a year Jan 1918: CAPE 7, then +16.1% a year Feb 1918: CAPE 7, then +15.6% a year Mar 1918: CAPE 7, then +16.4% a year Apr 1918: CAPE 7, then +17.2% a year May 1918: CAPE 7, then +17.1% a year Jun 1918: CAPE 6, then +16.5% a year Jul 1918: CAPE 6, then +16.4% a year Aug 1918: CAPE 6, then +16.6% a year Sep 1918: CAPE 6, then +17.5% a year Oct 1918: CAPE 6, then +17.2% a year Nov 1918: CAPE 6, then +17.6% a year Dec 1918: CAPE 6, then +17.9% a year Jan 1919: CAPE 6, then +18.8% a year Feb 1919: CAPE 6, then +18.7% a year Mar 1919: CAPE 6, then +18.6% a year Apr 1919: CAPE 6, then +18.1% a year May 1919: CAPE 7, then +17.4% a year Jun 1919: CAPE 7, then +17.3% a year Jul 1919: CAPE 7, then +17.9% a year Aug 1919: CAPE 6, then +19.4% a year Sep 1919: CAPE 7, then +19.6% a year Oct 1919: CAPE 7, then +17.7% a year Nov 1919: CAPE 6, then +14.4% a year Dec 1919: CAPE 6, then +15.2% a year Jan 1920: CAPE 6, then +15.5% a year Feb 1920: CAPE 5, then +17.2% a year Mar 1920: CAPE 6, then +16.8% a year Apr 1920: CAPE 6, then +17.6% a year May 1920: CAPE 5, then +17.6% a year Jun 1920: CAPE 5, then +16.5% a year Jul 1920: CAPE 5, then +16.3% a year Aug 1920: CAPE 5, then +16.6% a year Sep 1920: CAPE 5, then +16.1% a year Oct 1920: CAPE 5, then +14.4% a year Nov 1920: CAPE 5, then +14.2% a year Dec 1920: CAPE 5, then +14.4% a year Jan 1921: CAPE 5, then +14.3% a year Feb 1921: CAPE 5, then +15.2% a year Mar 1921: CAPE 5, then +15.7% a year Apr 1921: CAPE 5, then +14.4% a year May 1921: CAPE 6, then +12.9% a year Jun 1921: CAPE 5, then +13.5% a year Jul 1921: CAPE 5, then +13.9% a year Aug 1921: CAPE 5, then +13.7% a year Sep 1921: CAPE 5, then +11.6% a year Oct 1921: CAPE 5, then +9.9% a year Nov 1921: CAPE 6, then +9.5% a year Dec 1921: CAPE 6, then +6.9% a year Jan 1922: CAPE 6, then +6.7% a year Feb 1922: CAPE 6, then +6.5% a year Mar 1922: CAPE 7, then +6.1% a year Apr 1922: CAPE 7, then +2.7% a year May 1922: CAPE 8, then +1.0% a year Jun 1922: CAPE 8, then -0.3% a year Jul 1922: CAPE 8, then +0.2% a year Aug 1922: CAPE 8, then +4.0% a year Sep 1922: CAPE 8, then +4.7% a year Oct 1922: CAPE 8, then +3.0% a year Nov 1922: CAPE 8, then +3.4% a year Dec 1922: CAPE 8, then +3.1% a year Jan 1923: CAPE 8, then +3.4% a year Feb 1923: CAPE 9, then +1.7% a year Mar 1923: CAPE 9, then +1.5% a year Apr 1923: CAPE 8, then +2.9% a year May 1923: CAPE 8, then +6.0% a year Jun 1923: CAPE 8, then +8.2% a year Jul 1923: CAPE 7, then +9.3% a year Aug 1923: CAPE 7, then +8.7% a year Sep 1923: CAPE 7, then +8.5% a year Oct 1923: CAPE 7, then +7.6% a year Nov 1923: CAPE 8, then +7.5% a year Dec 1923: CAPE 8, then +7.3% a year Jan 1924: CAPE 8, then +7.6% a year Feb 1924: CAPE 8, then +8.3% a year Mar 1924: CAPE 8, then +7.9% a year Apr 1924: CAPE 8, then +8.3% a year May 1924: CAPE 8, then +7.2% a year Jun 1924: CAPE 8, then +7.1% a year Jul 1924: CAPE 8, then +6.1% a year Aug 1924: CAPE 9, then +5.3% a year Sep 1924: CAPE 9, then +5.1% a year Oct 1924: CAPE 8, then +5.3% a year Nov 1924: CAPE 9, then +5.0% a year Dec 1924: CAPE 9, then +4.6% a year Jan 1925: CAPE 10, then +4.1% a year Feb 1925: CAPE 10, then +3.7% a year Mar 1925: CAPE 10, then +3.3% a year Apr 1925: CAPE 9, then +4.2% a year May 1925: CAPE 10, then +4.6% a year Jun 1925: CAPE 10, then +4.8% a year Jul 1925: CAPE 10, then +5.1% a year Aug 1925: CAPE 10, then +5.6% a year Sep 1925: CAPE 10, then +5.6% a year Oct 1925: CAPE 11, then +5.5% a year Nov 1925: CAPE 11, then +6.1% a year Dec 1925: CAPE 11, then +5.9% a year Jan 1926: CAPE 11, then +6.3% a year Feb 1926: CAPE 11, then +6.9% a year Mar 1926: CAPE 11, then +7.8% a year Apr 1926: CAPE 10, then +8.2% a year May 1926: CAPE 11, then +7.5% a year Jun 1926: CAPE 11, then +7.4% a year Jul 1926: CAPE 12, then +7.6% a year Aug 1926: CAPE 12, then +7.4% a year Sep 1926: CAPE 13, then +7.3% a year Oct 1926: CAPE 12, then +8.1% a year Nov 1926: CAPE 13, then +8.2% a year Dec 1926: CAPE 13, then +7.8% a year Jan 1927: CAPE 13, then +8.2% a year Feb 1927: CAPE 14, then +8.3% a year Mar 1927: CAPE 14, then +8.1% a year Apr 1927: CAPE 14, then +7.2% a year May 1927: CAPE 15, then +6.3% a year Jun 1927: CAPE 15, then +5.8% a year Jul 1927: CAPE 16, then +6.2% a year Aug 1927: CAPE 17, then +5.7% a year Sep 1927: CAPE 18, then +3.6% a year Oct 1927: CAPE 18, then +2.1% a year Nov 1927: CAPE 18, then +1.0% a year Dec 1927: CAPE 19, then +0.6% a year Jan 1930: CAPE 22, then -0.2% a year Feb 1930: CAPE 24, then -0.8% a year Mar 1930: CAPE 25, then -1.2% a year Apr 1930: CAPE 26, then -1.7% a year May 1930: CAPE 24, then -2.6% a year Jun 1930: CAPE 22, then -2.4% a year Jul 1930: CAPE 22, then -1.9% a year Aug 1930: CAPE 21, then -1.5% a year Sep 1930: CAPE 21, then -1.1% a year Oct 1930: CAPE 18, then +0.5% a year Nov 1930: CAPE 17, then +1.5% a year Dec 1930: CAPE 16, then +1.8% a year Jan 1931: CAPE 17, then +1.5% a year Feb 1931: CAPE 18, then +0.1% a year Mar 1931: CAPE 19, then -0.0% a year Apr 1931: CAPE 17, then +0.7% a year May 1931: CAPE 15, then +1.5% a year Jun 1931: CAPE 15, then +2.2% a year Jul 1931: CAPE 16, then +2.4% a year Aug 1931: CAPE 15, then +2.6% a year Sep 1931: CAPE 13, then +4.3% a year Oct 1931: CAPE 11, then +5.4% a year Nov 1931: CAPE 11, then +4.8% a year Dec 1931: CAPE 9, then +6.2% a year Jan 1932: CAPE 9, then +6.6% a year Feb 1932: CAPE 9, then +6.3% a year Mar 1932: CAPE 9, then +5.7% a year Apr 1932: CAPE 7, then +8.1% a year May 1932: CAPE 6, then +9.7% a year Jun 1932: CAPE 6, then +11.7% a year Jul 1932: CAPE 6, then +11.6% a year Aug 1932: CAPE 9, then +7.0% a year Sep 1932: CAPE 10, then +6.2% a year Oct 1932: CAPE 8, then +8.5% a year Nov 1932: CAPE 8, then +8.8% a year Dec 1932: CAPE 8, then +9.2% a year Jan 1933: CAPE 9, then +9.4% a year Feb 1933: CAPE 8, then +11.4% a year Mar 1933: CAPE 8, then +11.8% a year Apr 1933: CAPE 9, then +11.0% a year May 1933: CAPE 11, then +8.7% a year Jun 1933: CAPE 13, then +7.2% a year Jul 1933: CAPE 14, then +6.5% a year Aug 1933: CAPE 13, then +6.6% a year Sep 1933: CAPE 13, then +6.9% a year Oct 1933: CAPE 12, then +7.9% a year Nov 1933: CAPE 12, then +7.1% a year Dec 1933: CAPE 12, then +7.1% a year Jan 1934: CAPE 13, then +6.8% a year Feb 1934: CAPE 14, then +6.0% a year Mar 1934: CAPE 13, then +6.9% a year Apr 1934: CAPE 14, then +6.5% a year May 1934: CAPE 12, then +7.8% a year Jun 1934: CAPE 12, then +8.2% a year Jul 1934: CAPE 12, then +9.0% a year Aug 1934: CAPE 11, then +9.3% a year Sep 1934: CAPE 11, then +9.4% a year Oct 1934: CAPE 11, then +9.6% a year Nov 1934: CAPE 11, then +9.2% a year Dec 1934: CAPE 12, then +9.3% a year Jan 1935: CAPE 11, then +9.7% a year Feb 1935: CAPE 11, then +10.4% a year Mar 1935: CAPE 10, then +11.1% a year Apr 1935: CAPE 11, then +10.6% a year May 1935: CAPE 12, then +10.1% a year Jun 1935: CAPE 13, then +9.9% a year Jul 1935: CAPE 13, then +9.1% a year Aug 1935: CAPE 14, then +8.5% a year Sep 1935: CAPE 14, then +8.9% a year Oct 1935: CAPE 15, then +9.1% a year Nov 1935: CAPE 16, then +8.5% a year Dec 1935: CAPE 16, then +8.7% a year Jan 1936: CAPE 17, then +8.5% a year Feb 1936: CAPE 18, then +7.9% a year Mar 1936: CAPE 19, then +7.4% a year Apr 1936: CAPE 19, then +8.1% a year May 1936: CAPE 18, then +8.7% a year Jun 1936: CAPE 18, then +8.1% a year Jul 1936: CAPE 19, then +7.2% a year Aug 1936: CAPE 20, then +6.8% a year Sep 1936: CAPE 20, then +5.0% a year Oct 1936: CAPE 21, then +4.2% a year Nov 1936: CAPE 21, then +3.9% a year Dec 1936: CAPE 21, then +4.4% a year Jan 1937: CAPE 22, then +4.1% a year Feb 1937: CAPE 22, then +4.2% a year Mar 1937: CAPE 22, then +3.8% a year Apr 1937: CAPE 21, then +4.1% a year May 1937: CAPE 19, then +4.4% a year Jun 1937: CAPE 19, then +5.1% a year Jul 1937: CAPE 20, then +5.2% a year Aug 1937: CAPE 20, then +4.8% a year Sep 1937: CAPE 17, then +6.2% a year Oct 1937: CAPE 14, then +8.1% a year Nov 1937: CAPE 13, then +9.0% a year Dec 1937: CAPE 13, then +9.0% a year Jan 1938: CAPE 14, then +8.5% a year Feb 1938: CAPE 13, then +8.2% a year Mar 1938: CAPE 12, then +9.1% a year Apr 1938: CAPE 12, then +10.4% a year May 1938: CAPE 12, then +10.8% a year Jun 1938: CAPE 12, then +10.9% a year Jul 1938: CAPE 15, then +8.7% a year Aug 1938: CAPE 15, then +8.3% a year Sep 1938: CAPE 14, then +8.7% a year Oct 1938: CAPE 16, then +7.8% a year Nov 1938: CAPE 16, then +7.2% a year Dec 1938: CAPE 16, then +7.5% a year Jan 1939: CAPE 16, then +7.8% a year Feb 1939: CAPE 16, then +7.5% a year Mar 1939: CAPE 16, then +7.6% a year Apr 1939: CAPE 14, then +9.1% a year May 1939: CAPE 15, then +8.6% a year Jun 1939: CAPE 15, then +7.8% a year Jul 1939: CAPE 15, then +8.2% a year Aug 1939: CAPE 15, then +8.8% a year Sep 1939: CAPE 16, then +7.8% a year Oct 1939: CAPE 17, then +8.0% a year Nov 1939: CAPE 17, then +8.4% a year Dec 1939: CAPE 16, then +8.9% a year Jan 1940: CAPE 16, then +9.2% a year Feb 1940: CAPE 16, then +9.5% a year Mar 1940: CAPE 16, then +9.7% a year Apr 1940: CAPE 16, then +9.9% a year May 1940: CAPE 14, then +11.9% a year Jun 1940: CAPE 13, then +13.1% a year Jul 1940: CAPE 13, then +11.9% a year Aug 1940: CAPE 14, then +12.3% a year Sep 1940: CAPE 14, then +12.3% a year Oct 1940: CAPE 14, then +12.6% a year Nov 1940: CAPE 15, then +12.3% a year Dec 1940: CAPE 14, then +12.8% a year Jan 1941: CAPE 14, then +13.6% a year Feb 1941: CAPE 13, then +14.7% a year Mar 1941: CAPE 13, then +14.5% a year Apr 1941: CAPE 12, then +15.0% a year May 1941: CAPE 12, then +15.2% a year Jun 1941: CAPE 12, then +14.6% a year Jul 1941: CAPE 13, then +14.3% a year Aug 1941: CAPE 12, then +14.8% a year Sep 1941: CAPE 12, then +15.1% a year Oct 1941: CAPE 12, then +15.5% a year Nov 1941: CAPE 11, then +15.7% a year Dec 1941: CAPE 10, then +16.8% a year Jan 1942: CAPE 10, then +16.9% a year Feb 1942: CAPE 10, then +17.1% a year Mar 1942: CAPE 9, then +17.8% a year Apr 1942: CAPE 9, then +18.2% a year May 1942: CAPE 9, then +18.0% a year Jun 1942: CAPE 9, then +17.7% a year Jul 1942: CAPE 9, then +17.6% a year Aug 1942: CAPE 9, then +17.7% a year Sep 1942: CAPE 9, then +17.4% a year Oct 1942: CAPE 10, then +16.3% a year Nov 1942: CAPE 10, then +16.5% a year Dec 1942: CAPE 10, then +16.9% a year Jan 1943: CAPE 10, then +16.3% a year Feb 1943: CAPE 11, then +15.4% a year Mar 1943: CAPE 11, then +15.1% a year Apr 1943: CAPE 11, then +14.2% a year May 1943: CAPE 11, then +13.8% a year Jun 1943: CAPE 12, then +13.2% a year Jul 1943: CAPE 12, then +13.1% a year Aug 1943: CAPE 11, then +13.8% a year Sep 1943: CAPE 11, then +13.0% a year Oct 1943: CAPE 11, then +13.4% a year Nov 1943: CAPE 11, then +14.2% a year Dec 1943: CAPE 11, then +14.2% a year Jan 1944: CAPE 11, then +14.2% a year Feb 1944: CAPE 11, then +14.5% a year Mar 1944: CAPE 11, then +14.4% a year Apr 1944: CAPE 11, then +15.1% a year May 1944: CAPE 11, then +15.3% a year Jun 1944: CAPE 12, then +14.9% a year Jul 1944: CAPE 12, then +15.0% a year Aug 1944: CAPE 12, then +15.4% a year Sep 1944: CAPE 11, then +15.9% a year Oct 1944: CAPE 12, then +15.9% a year Nov 1944: CAPE 11, then +16.4% a year Dec 1944: CAPE 12, then +16.7% a year Jan 1945: CAPE 12, then +16.5% a year Feb 1945: CAPE 12, then +16.5% a year Mar 1945: CAPE 12, then +16.4% a year Apr 1945: CAPE 13, then +16.5% a year May 1945: CAPE 13, then +16.1% a year Jun 1945: CAPE 13, then +16.5% a year Jul 1945: CAPE 13, then +17.6% a year Aug 1945: CAPE 13, then +17.4% a year Sep 1945: CAPE 14, then +17.2% a year Oct 1945: CAPE 14, then +16.1% a year Nov 1945: CAPE 15, then +16.5% a year Dec 1945: CAPE 15, then +16.4% a year Jan 1946: CAPE 16, then +15.6% a year Feb 1946: CAPE 16, then +15.7% a year Mar 1946: CAPE 15, then +16.8% a year Apr 1946: CAPE 16, then +16.2% a year May 1946: CAPE 16, then +15.8% a year Jun 1946: CAPE 16, then +15.8% a year Jul 1946: CAPE 15, then +16.8% a year Aug 1946: CAPE 14, then +16.9% a year Sep 1946: CAPE 12, then +18.4% a year Oct 1946: CAPE 11, then +18.5% a year Nov 1946: CAPE 11, then +18.4% a year Dec 1946: CAPE 11, then +18.2% a year Jan 1947: CAPE 11, then +17.9% a year Feb 1947: CAPE 12, then +16.9% a year Mar 1947: CAPE 11, then +17.6% a year Apr 1947: CAPE 11, then +18.2% a year May 1947: CAPE 11, then +18.9% a year Jun 1947: CAPE 11, then +18.7% a year Jul 1947: CAPE 12, then +18.2% a year Aug 1947: CAPE 11, then +17.7% a year Sep 1947: CAPE 11, then +17.5% a year Oct 1947: CAPE 11, then +16.5% a year Nov 1947: CAPE 11, then +16.4% a year Dec 1947: CAPE 11, then +16.5% a year Jan 1948: CAPE 10, then +16.9% a year Feb 1948: CAPE 10, then +17.5% a year Mar 1948: CAPE 10, then +17.6% a year Apr 1948: CAPE 11, then +16.7% a year May 1948: CAPE 11, then +16.5% a year Jun 1948: CAPE 12, then +16.3% a year Jul 1948: CAPE 11, then +16.9% a year Aug 1948: CAPE 11, then +17.7% a year Sep 1948: CAPE 11, then +18.1% a year Oct 1948: CAPE 11, then +18.2% a year Nov 1948: CAPE 10, then +19.2% a year Dec 1948: CAPE 10, then +19.5% a year Jan 1949: CAPE 10, then +19.8% a year Feb 1949: CAPE 10, then +20.1% a year Mar 1949: CAPE 10, then +20.2% a year Apr 1949: CAPE 10, then +20.4% a year May 1949: CAPE 10, then +20.6% a year Jun 1949: CAPE 9, then +21.2% a year Jul 1949: CAPE 10, then +20.9% a year Aug 1949: CAPE 10, then +20.4% a year Sep 1949: CAPE 10, then +19.7% a year Oct 1949: CAPE 10, then +19.4% a year Nov 1949: CAPE 10, then +19.2% a year Dec 1949: CAPE 11, then +19.2% a year Jan 1950: CAPE 11, then +18.8% a year Feb 1950: CAPE 11, then +18.0% a year Mar 1950: CAPE 11, then +17.7% a year Apr 1950: CAPE 11, then +17.5% a year May 1950: CAPE 11, then +17.0% a year Jun 1950: CAPE 12, then +17.2% a year Jul 1950: CAPE 11, then +17.8% a year Aug 1950: CAPE 11, then +17.2% a year Sep 1950: CAPE 11, then +16.4% a year Oct 1950: CAPE 12, then +15.7% a year Nov 1950: CAPE 12, then +16.0% a year Dec 1950: CAPE 11, then +16.3% a year Jan 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.0% a year Feb 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.0% a year Mar 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.6% a year Apr 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.7% a year May 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.7% a year Jun 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.7% a year Jul 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.5% a year Aug 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.3% a year Sep 1951: CAPE 12, then +15.9% a year Oct 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.1% a year Nov 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.9% a year Dec 1951: CAPE 12, then +16.6% a year Jan 1952: CAPE 13, then +15.8% a year Feb 1952: CAPE 12, then +16.1% a year Mar 1952: CAPE 12, then +16.1% a year Apr 1952: CAPE 12, then +15.7% a year May 1952: CAPE 12, then +14.8% a year Jun 1952: CAPE 12, then +13.1% a year Jul 1952: CAPE 13, then +13.0% a year Aug 1952: CAPE 13, then +13.2% a year Sep 1952: CAPE 12, then +13.3% a year Oct 1952: CAPE 12, then +13.1% a year Nov 1952: CAPE 12, then +13.5% a year Dec 1952: CAPE 13, then +13.5% a year Jan 1953: CAPE 13, then +13.9% a year Feb 1953: CAPE 13, then +14.2% a year Mar 1953: CAPE 13, then +14.0% a year Apr 1953: CAPE 12, then +15.1% a year May 1953: CAPE 12, then +15.2% a year Jun 1953: CAPE 12, then +15.6% a year Jul 1953: CAPE 12, then +15.3% a year Aug 1953: CAPE 12, then +15.5% a year Sep 1953: CAPE 11, then +16.3% a year Oct 1953: CAPE 11, then +16.0% a year Nov 1953: CAPE 12, then +15.7% a year Dec 1953: CAPE 12, then +15.7% a year Jan 1954: CAPE 12, then +15.8% a year Feb 1954: CAPE 12, then +15.6% a year Mar 1954: CAPE 12, then +15.6% a year Apr 1954: CAPE 13, then +15.2% a year May 1954: CAPE 13, then +14.9% a year Jun 1954: CAPE 13, then +14.7% a year Jul 1954: CAPE 14, then +14.7% a year Aug 1954: CAPE 14, then +14.2% a year Sep 1954: CAPE 14, then +14.2% a year Oct 1954: CAPE 15, then +14.1% a year Nov 1954: CAPE 15, then +13.7% a year Dec 1954: CAPE 16, then +13.0% a year Jan 1955: CAPE 16, then +13.1% a year Feb 1955: CAPE 16, then +12.8% a year Mar 1955: CAPE 16, then +12.8% a year Apr 1955: CAPE 17, then +12.6% a year May 1955: CAPE 17, then +12.8% a year Jun 1955: CAPE 17, then +11.6% a year Jul 1955: CAPE 18, then +10.8% a year Aug 1955: CAPE 18, then +11.1% a year Sep 1955: CAPE 19, then +10.9% a year Oct 1955: CAPE 18, then +11.8% a year Nov 1955: CAPE 19, then +11.1% a year Dec 1955: CAPE 19, then +10.9% a year Jan 1956: CAPE 18, then +11.4% a year Feb 1956: CAPE 18, then +11.3% a year Mar 1956: CAPE 19, then +10.1% a year Apr 1956: CAPE 19, then +10.3% a year May 1956: CAPE 19, then +10.0% a year Jun 1956: CAPE 18, then +10.0% a year Jul 1956: CAPE 19, then +9.4% a year Aug 1956: CAPE 19, then +8.8% a year Sep 1956: CAPE 18, then +8.7% a year Oct 1956: CAPE 17, then +8.8% a year Nov 1956: CAPE 17, then +9.4% a year Dec 1956: CAPE 17, then +9.3% a year Jan 1957: CAPE 17, then +10.0% a year Feb 1957: CAPE 16, then +10.8% a year Mar 1957: CAPE 16, then +10.9% a year Apr 1957: CAPE 16, then +10.9% a year May 1957: CAPE 17, then +10.6% a year Jun 1957: CAPE 17, then +10.3% a year Jul 1957: CAPE 17, then +10.3% a year Aug 1957: CAPE 16, then +11.1% a year Sep 1957: CAPE 15, then +11.7% a year Oct 1957: CAPE 14, then +12.4% a year Nov 1957: CAPE 14, then +12.2% a year Dec 1957: CAPE 14, then +12.6% a year Jan 1958: CAPE 14, then +12.3% a year Feb 1958: CAPE 14, then +11.7% a year Mar 1958: CAPE 14, then +11.3% a year Apr 1958: CAPE 14, then +12.0% a year May 1958: CAPE 14, then +11.9% a year Jun 1958: CAPE 15, then +11.9% a year Jul 1958: CAPE 15, then +11.6% a year Aug 1958: CAPE 16, then +10.9% a year Sep 1958: CAPE 16, then +11.0% a year Oct 1958: CAPE 17, then +10.8% a year Nov 1958: CAPE 17, then +10.7% a year Dec 1958: CAPE 17, then +10.6% a year Jan 1959: CAPE 18, then +9.7% a year Feb 1959: CAPE 18, then +9.8% a year Mar 1959: CAPE 18, then +9.2% a year Apr 1959: CAPE 18, then +9.3% a year May 1959: CAPE 19, then +9.5% a year Jun 1959: CAPE 18, then +9.0% a year Jul 1959: CAPE 19, then +8.1% a year Aug 1959: CAPE 19, then +8.1% a year Sep 1959: CAPE 18, then +8.5% a year Oct 1959: CAPE 18, then +8.7% a year Nov 1959: CAPE 18, then +8.7% a year Dec 1959: CAPE 19, then +7.8% a year Jan 1960: CAPE 18, then +7.9% a year Feb 1960: CAPE 18, then +7.9% a year Mar 1960: CAPE 17, then +8.2% a year Apr 1960: CAPE 17, then +7.8% a year May 1960: CAPE 17, then +6.6% a year Jun 1960: CAPE 18, then +6.1% a year Jul 1960: CAPE 17, then +6.4% a year Aug 1960: CAPE 18, then +6.6% a year Sep 1960: CAPE 17, then +7.6% a year Oct 1960: CAPE 17, then +8.0% a year Nov 1960: CAPE 17, then +7.7% a year Dec 1960: CAPE 18, then +8.1% a year Jan 1961: CAPE 18, then +8.0% a year Feb 1961: CAPE 19, then +8.0% a year Mar 1961: CAPE 20, then +7.9% a year Apr 1961: CAPE 20, then +8.0% a year May 1961: CAPE 21, then +7.7% a year Jun 1961: CAPE 20, then +7.7% a year Jul 1961: CAPE 20, then +7.6% a year Aug 1961: CAPE 21, then +7.0% a year Sep 1961: CAPE 21, then +7.4% a year Oct 1961: CAPE 21, then +7.0% a year Nov 1961: CAPE 22, then +6.0% a year Dec 1961: CAPE 22, then +6.7% a year Jan 1962: CAPE 21, then +7.5% a year Feb 1962: CAPE 21, then +7.5% a year Mar 1962: CAPE 21, then +7.8% a year Apr 1962: CAPE 21, then +8.2% a year May 1962: CAPE 19, then +8.9% a year Jun 1962: CAPE 17, then +10.3% a year Jul 1962: CAPE 17, then +10.0% a year Aug 1962: CAPE 18, then +10.1% a year Sep 1962: CAPE 17, then +10.0% a year Oct 1962: CAPE 17, then +10.4% a year Nov 1962: CAPE 18, then +10.2% a year Dec 1962: CAPE 19, then +9.9% a year Jan 1963: CAPE 19, then +9.6% a year Feb 1963: CAPE 19, then +9.0% a year Mar 1963: CAPE 19, then +8.9% a year Apr 1963: CAPE 20, then +8.2% a year May 1963: CAPE 21, then +7.7% a year Jun 1963: CAPE 20, then +7.4% a year Jul 1963: CAPE 20, then +7.7% a year Aug 1963: CAPE 20, then +7.2% a year Sep 1963: CAPE 21, then +7.1% a year Oct 1963: CAPE 21, then +7.5% a year Nov 1963: CAPE 21, then +6.8% a year Dec 1963: CAPE 21, then +5.8% a year Jan 1964: CAPE 22, then +5.6% a year Feb 1964: CAPE 22, then +5.2% a year Mar 1964: CAPE 22, then +5.4% a year Apr 1964: CAPE 22, then +4.7% a year May 1964: CAPE 23, then +4.3% a year Jun 1964: CAPE 22, then +4.4% a year Jul 1964: CAPE 23, then +2.8% a year Aug 1964: CAPE 23, then +2.5% a year Sep 1964: CAPE 23, then +1.2% a year Oct 1964: CAPE 23, then +1.2% a year Nov 1964: CAPE 23, then +1.5% a year Dec 1964: CAPE 23, then +1.1% a year Jan 1965: CAPE 23, then +1.6% a year Feb 1965: CAPE 23, then +2.5% a year Mar 1965: CAPE 23, then +3.0% a year Apr 1965: CAPE 23, then +3.0% a year May 1965: CAPE 24, then +3.5% a year Jun 1965: CAPE 22, then +4.3% a year Jul 1965: CAPE 22, then +4.3% a year Aug 1965: CAPE 23, then +3.3% a year Sep 1965: CAPE 23, then +2.9% a year Oct 1965: CAPE 24, then +3.1% a year Nov 1965: CAPE 24, then +3.2% a year Dec 1965: CAPE 24, then +3.1% a year Jan 1966: CAPE 24, then +3.9% a year Feb 1966: CAPE 24, then +4.3% a year Mar 1966: CAPE 23, then +4.8% a year Apr 1966: CAPE 23, then +4.6% a year May 1966: CAPE 22, then +5.1% a year Jun 1966: CAPE 22, then +5.3% a year Jul 1966: CAPE 21, then +5.5% a year Aug 1966: CAPE 20, then +6.1% a year Sep 1966: CAPE 19, then +6.7% a year Oct 1966: CAPE 19, then +6.4% a year Nov 1966: CAPE 20, then +5.8% a year Dec 1966: CAPE 20, then +6.2% a year Jan 1967: CAPE 20, then +5.7% a year Feb 1967: CAPE 21, then +5.0% a year Mar 1967: CAPE 21, then +4.8% a year Apr 1967: CAPE 22, then +4.4% a year May 1967: CAPE 22, then +4.2% a year Jun 1967: CAPE 22, then +4.4% a year Jul 1967: CAPE 22, then +4.3% a year Aug 1967: CAPE 22, then +3.9% a year Sep 1967: CAPE 22, then +3.6% a year Oct 1967: CAPE 22, then +3.4% a year Nov 1967: CAPE 21, then +3.8% a year Dec 1967: CAPE 22, then +3.5% a year Jan 1968: CAPE 22, then +3.1% a year Feb 1968: CAPE 20, then +3.5% a year Mar 1968: CAPE 20, then +3.7% a year Apr 1968: CAPE 21, then +3.4% a year May 1968: CAPE 22, then +3.7% a year Jun 1968: CAPE 22, then +3.5% a year Jul 1968: CAPE 22, then +3.5% a year Aug 1968: CAPE 21, then +4.4% a year Sep 1968: CAPE 22, then +4.1% a year Oct 1968: CAPE 22, then +3.5% a year Nov 1968: CAPE 22, then +2.7% a year Dec 1968: CAPE 22, then +2.8% a year Jan 1969: CAPE 21, then +3.6% a year Feb 1969: CAPE 21, then +3.6% a year Mar 1969: CAPE 20, then +4.0% a year Apr 1969: CAPE 20, then +4.0% a year May 1969: CAPE 21, then +3.5% a year Jun 1969: CAPE 20, then +4.2% a year Jul 1969: CAPE 19, then +4.8% a year Aug 1969: CAPE 18, then +5.4% a year Sep 1969: CAPE 18, then +5.5% a year Oct 1969: CAPE 18, then +5.0% a year Nov 1969: CAPE 18, then +4.8% a year Dec 1969: CAPE 17, then +5.8% a year Jan 1970: CAPE 17, then +6.2% a year Feb 1970: CAPE 16, then +7.1% a year Mar 1970: CAPE 17, then +5.9% a year Apr 1970: CAPE 16, then +6.0% a year May 1970: CAPE 14, then +7.8% a year Jun 1970: CAPE 14, then +8.6% a year Jul 1970: CAPE 14, then +9.1% a year Aug 1970: CAPE 14, then +9.1% a year Sep 1970: CAPE 15, then +8.7% a year Oct 1970: CAPE 15, then +8.8% a year Nov 1970: CAPE 15, then +9.3% a year Dec 1970: CAPE 16, then +8.4% a year Jan 1971: CAPE 16, then +8.0% a year Feb 1971: CAPE 17, then +7.2% a year Mar 1971: CAPE 17, then +7.3% a year Apr 1971: CAPE 18, then +7.1% a year May 1971: CAPE 18, then +7.0% a year Jun 1971: CAPE 17, then +7.3% a year Jul 1971: CAPE 17, then +7.1% a year Aug 1971: CAPE 17, then +7.4% a year Sep 1971: CAPE 17, then +6.2% a year Oct 1971: CAPE 16, then +6.5% a year Nov 1971: CAPE 16, then +7.3% a year Dec 1971: CAPE 17, then +6.7% a year Jan 1972: CAPE 17, then +5.8% a year Feb 1972: CAPE 17, then +5.3% a year Mar 1972: CAPE 18, then +4.8% a year Apr 1972: CAPE 18, then +5.2% a year May 1972: CAPE 18, then +5.3% a year Jun 1972: CAPE 18, then +4.7% a year Jul 1972: CAPE 17, then +4.8% a year Aug 1972: CAPE 18, then +4.5% a year Sep 1972: CAPE 18, then +5.8% a year Oct 1972: CAPE 18, then +6.7% a year Nov 1972: CAPE 18, then +6.6% a year Dec 1972: CAPE 19, then +6.5% a year Jan 1973: CAPE 19, then +6.8% a year Feb 1973: CAPE 18, then +7.4% a year Mar 1973: CAPE 17, then +8.0% a year Apr 1973: CAPE 17, then +8.6% a year May 1973: CAPE 16, then +9.3% a year Jun 1973: CAPE 16, then +9.7% a year Jul 1973: CAPE 16, then +9.7% a year Aug 1973: CAPE 15, then +9.6% a year Sep 1973: CAPE 15, then +9.7% a year Oct 1973: CAPE 16, then +9.4% a year Nov 1973: CAPE 15, then +10.0% a year Dec 1973: CAPE 13, then +10.8% a year Jan 1974: CAPE 14, then +10.8% a year Feb 1974: CAPE 13, then +10.4% a year Mar 1974: CAPE 13, then +10.0% a year Apr 1974: CAPE 13, then +10.6% a year May 1974: CAPE 12, then +10.9% a year Jun 1974: CAPE 12, then +10.6% a year Jul 1974: CAPE 10, then +11.9% a year Aug 1974: CAPE 10, then +13.3% a year Sep 1974: CAPE 9, then +14.7% a year Oct 1974: CAPE 9, then +14.3% a year Nov 1974: CAPE 9, then +14.1% a year Dec 1974: CAPE 8, then +14.7% a year Jan 1975: CAPE 9, then +14.3% a year Feb 1975: CAPE 10, then +13.8% a year Mar 1975: CAPE 10, then +13.1% a year Apr 1975: CAPE 10, then +13.1% a year May 1975: CAPE 11, then +12.7% a year Jun 1975: CAPE 11, then +12.6% a year Jul 1975: CAPE 11, then +12.8% a year Aug 1975: CAPE 10, then +13.4% a year Sep 1975: CAPE 10, then +13.3% a year Oct 1975: CAPE 10, then +12.9% a year Nov 1975: CAPE 10, then +13.4% a year Dec 1975: CAPE 10, then +14.1% a year Jan 1976: CAPE 11, then +13.2% a year Feb 1976: CAPE 12, then +13.3% a year Mar 1976: CAPE 12, then +13.9% a year Apr 1976: CAPE 12, then +14.1% a year May 1976: CAPE 12, then +14.2% a year Jun 1976: CAPE 12, then +14.5% a year Jul 1976: CAPE 12, then +14.0% a year Aug 1976: CAPE 12, then +14.3% a year Sep 1976: CAPE 12, then +13.7% a year Oct 1976: CAPE 11, then +14.1% a year Nov 1976: CAPE 11, then +14.5% a year Dec 1976: CAPE 12, then +14.3% a year Jan 1977: CAPE 11, then +15.1% a year Feb 1977: CAPE 11, then +16.1% a year Mar 1977: CAPE 11, then +16.6% a year Apr 1977: CAPE 11, then +16.6% a year May 1977: CAPE 11, then +16.6% a year Jun 1977: CAPE 11, then +17.1% a year Jul 1977: CAPE 11, then +17.3% a year Aug 1977: CAPE 10, then +18.2% a year Sep 1977: CAPE 10, then +18.0% a year Oct 1977: CAPE 10, then +16.8% a year Nov 1977: CAPE 10, then +15.2% a year Dec 1977: CAPE 10, then +15.0% a year Jan 1978: CAPE 9, then +15.9% a year Feb 1978: CAPE 9, then +16.4% a year Mar 1978: CAPE 9, then +16.7% a year Apr 1978: CAPE 9, then +16.1% a year May 1978: CAPE 10, then +15.2% a year Jun 1978: CAPE 10, then +15.8% a year Jul 1978: CAPE 9, then +15.8% a year Aug 1978: CAPE 10, then +14.8% a year Sep 1978: CAPE 10, then +14.9% a year Oct 1978: CAPE 10, then +15.7% a year Nov 1978: CAPE 9, then +16.1% a year Dec 1978: CAPE 9, then +16.1% a year Jan 1979: CAPE 9, then +16.1% a year Feb 1979: CAPE 9, then +16.6% a year Mar 1979: CAPE 9, then +16.3% a year Apr 1979: CAPE 9, then +16.4% a year May 1979: CAPE 9, then +17.1% a year Jun 1979: CAPE 9, then +17.2% a year Jul 1979: CAPE 9, then +17.4% a year Aug 1979: CAPE 9, then +17.3% a year Sep 1979: CAPE 9, then +17.2% a year Oct 1979: CAPE 9, then +17.6% a year Nov 1979: CAPE 9, then +17.5% a year Dec 1979: CAPE 9, then +17.3% a year Jan 1980: CAPE 9, then +16.6% a year Feb 1980: CAPE 9, then +15.8% a year Mar 1980: CAPE 8, then +17.2% a year Apr 1980: CAPE 8, then +17.4% a year May 1980: CAPE 8, then +17.2% a year Jun 1980: CAPE 9, then +16.8% a year Jul 1980: CAPE 9, then +16.3% a year Aug 1980: CAPE 9, then +14.9% a year Sep 1980: CAPE 9, then +14.1% a year Oct 1980: CAPE 9, then +13.5% a year Nov 1980: CAPE 10, then +13.3% a year Dec 1980: CAPE 9, then +13.9% a year Jan 1981: CAPE 9, then +13.9% a year Feb 1981: CAPE 9, then +15.5% a year Mar 1981: CAPE 9, then +15.4% a year Apr 1981: CAPE 9, then +15.5% a year May 1981: CAPE 9, then +15.6% a year Jun 1981: CAPE 9, then +15.6% a year Jul 1981: CAPE 8, then +15.9% a year Aug 1981: CAPE 8, then +16.1% a year Sep 1981: CAPE 8, then +17.1% a year Oct 1981: CAPE 8, then +16.9% a year Nov 1981: CAPE 8, then +16.6% a year Dec 1981: CAPE 8, then +16.5% a year Jan 1982: CAPE 7, then +17.9% a year Feb 1982: CAPE 7, then +18.1% a year Mar 1982: CAPE 7, then +18.3% a year Apr 1982: CAPE 7, then +17.7% a year May 1982: CAPE 7, then +17.9% a year Jun 1982: CAPE 7, then +18.4% a year Jul 1982: CAPE 7, then +18.6% a year Aug 1982: CAPE 7, then +18.6% a year Sep 1982: CAPE 7, then +17.3% a year Oct 1982: CAPE 8, then +16.1% a year Nov 1982: CAPE 8, then +15.9% a year Dec 1982: CAPE 8, then +16.2% a year Jan 1983: CAPE 9, then +15.7% a year Feb 1983: CAPE 9, then +15.7% a year Mar 1983: CAPE 9, then +15.5% a year Apr 1983: CAPE 10, then +14.9% a year May 1983: CAPE 10, then +14.4% a year Jun 1983: CAPE 10, then +14.3% a year Jul 1983: CAPE 10, then +14.3% a year Aug 1983: CAPE 10, then +14.8% a year Sep 1983: CAPE 10, then +14.5% a year Oct 1983: CAPE 10, then +14.6% a year Nov 1983: CAPE 10, then +14.7% a year Dec 1983: CAPE 10, then +14.8% a year Jan 1984: CAPE 10, then +14.9% a year Feb 1984: CAPE 9, then +15.5% a year Mar 1984: CAPE 9, then +15.2% a year Apr 1984: CAPE 9, then +14.8% a year May 1984: CAPE 9, then +14.9% a year Jun 1984: CAPE 9, then +15.3% a year Jul 1984: CAPE 9, then +15.3% a year Aug 1984: CAPE 10, then +14.7% a year Sep 1984: CAPE 10, then +14.6% a year Oct 1984: CAPE 10, then +14.6% a year Nov 1984: CAPE 10, then +14.4% a year Dec 1984: CAPE 10, then +14.4% a year Jan 1985: CAPE 10, then +14.1% a year Feb 1985: CAPE 10, then +13.9% a year Mar 1985: CAPE 10, then +14.3% a year Apr 1985: CAPE 10, then +14.5% a year May 1985: CAPE 11, then +14.6% a year Jun 1985: CAPE 11, then +14.6% a year Jul 1985: CAPE 11, then +14.8% a year Aug 1985: CAPE 11, then +15.1% a year Sep 1985: CAPE 10, then +15.7% a year Oct 1985: CAPE 11, then +15.6% a year Nov 1985: CAPE 11, then +15.2% a year Dec 1985: CAPE 12, then +15.0% a year Jan 1986: CAPE 12, then +14.9% a year Feb 1986: CAPE 12, then +14.9% a year Mar 1986: CAPE 13, then +14.2% a year Apr 1986: CAPE 14, then +13.9% a year May 1986: CAPE 14, then +14.2% a year Jun 1986: CAPE 14, then +13.9% a year Jul 1986: CAPE 14, then +13.7% a year Aug 1986: CAPE 14, then +13.8% a year Sep 1986: CAPE 13, then +14.3% a year Oct 1986: CAPE 13, then +14.8% a year Nov 1986: CAPE 14, then +15.0% a year Dec 1986: CAPE 14, then +14.9% a year Jan 1987: CAPE 15, then +14.6% a year Feb 1987: CAPE 16, then +14.3% a year Mar 1987: CAPE 16, then +13.8% a year Apr 1987: CAPE 16, then +13.5% a year May 1987: CAPE 16, then +14.4% a year Jun 1987: CAPE 17, then +14.5% a year Jul 1987: CAPE 17, then +14.8% a year Aug 1987: CAPE 18, then +14.2% a year Sep 1987: CAPE 18, then +14.6% a year Oct 1987: CAPE 16, then +16.3% a year Nov 1987: CAPE 14, then +17.7% a year Dec 1987: CAPE 13, then +18.1% a year Jan 1988: CAPE 14, then +17.7% a year Feb 1988: CAPE 14, then +18.0% a year Mar 1988: CAPE 15, then +18.3% a year Apr 1988: CAPE 14, then +18.8% a year May 1988: CAPE 14, then +19.0% a year Jun 1988: CAPE 15, then +18.3% a year Jul 1988: CAPE 15, then +18.9% a year Aug 1988: CAPE 14, then +18.2% a year Sep 1988: CAPE 14, then +17.4% a year Oct 1988: CAPE 15, then +17.1% a year Nov 1988: CAPE 14, then +18.6% a year Dec 1988: CAPE 15, then +18.8% a year Jan 1989: CAPE 15, then +19.0% a year Feb 1989: CAPE 15, then +18.6% a year Mar 1989: CAPE 15, then +18.9% a year Apr 1989: CAPE 16, then +19.0% a year May 1989: CAPE 16, then +18.5% a year Jun 1989: CAPE 17, then +18.1% a year Jul 1989: CAPE 17, then +18.3% a year Aug 1989: CAPE 18, then +17.3% a year Sep 1989: CAPE 18, then +17.1% a year Oct 1989: CAPE 18, then +17.0% a year Nov 1989: CAPE 17, then +18.0% a year Dec 1989: CAPE 18, then +18.0% a year Jan 1990: CAPE 17, then +18.2% a year Feb 1990: CAPE 17, then +18.2% a year Mar 1990: CAPE 17, then +18.4% a year Apr 1990: CAPE 17, then +18.5% a year May 1990: CAPE 17, then +17.7% a year Jun 1990: CAPE 18, then +17.7% a year Jul 1990: CAPE 18, then +17.8% a year Aug 1990: CAPE 16, then +18.9% a year Sep 1990: CAPE 15, then +19.3% a year Oct 1990: CAPE 15, then +18.9% a year Nov 1990: CAPE 15, then +18.5% a year Dec 1990: CAPE 16, then +17.6% a year Jan 1991: CAPE 16, then +17.7% a year Feb 1991: CAPE 17, then +16.2% a year Mar 1991: CAPE 18, then +14.7% a year Apr 1991: CAPE 18, then +14.5% a year May 1991: CAPE 18, then +15.3% a year Jun 1991: CAPE 18, then +15.0% a year Jul 1991: CAPE 18, then +14.6% a year Aug 1991: CAPE 19, then +14.1% a year Sep 1991: CAPE 18, then +12.7% a year Oct 1991: CAPE 18, then +13.1% a year Nov 1991: CAPE 18, then +13.6% a year Dec 1991: CAPE 18, then +13.7% a year Jan 1992: CAPE 20, then +12.8% a year Feb 1992: CAPE 20, then +12.5% a year Mar 1992: CAPE 19, then +13.2% a year Apr 1992: CAPE 19, then +12.8% a year May 1992: CAPE 20, then +12.2% a year Jun 1992: CAPE 19, then +11.7% a year Jul 1992: CAPE 20, then +10.2% a year Aug 1992: CAPE 20, then +10.2% a year Sep 1992: CAPE 20, then +9.6% a year Oct 1992: CAPE 19, then +9.6% a year Nov 1992: CAPE 20, then +10.0% a year Dec 1992: CAPE 20, then +9.6% a year Jan 1993: CAPE 20, then +9.5% a year Feb 1993: CAPE 21, then +8.6% a year Mar 1993: CAPE 21, then +8.5% a year Apr 1993: CAPE 20, then +9.2% a year May 1993: CAPE 21, then +9.7% a year Jun 1993: CAPE 21, then +10.2% a year Jul 1993: CAPE 21, then +10.3% a year Aug 1993: CAPE 21, then +10.1% a year Sep 1993: CAPE 21, then +10.3% a year Oct 1993: CAPE 21, then +10.3% a year Nov 1993: CAPE 21, then +10.5% a year Dec 1993: CAPE 21, then +10.7% a year Jan 1994: CAPE 21, then +11.1% a year Feb 1994: CAPE 21, then +11.2% a year Mar 1994: CAPE 21, then +11.2% a year Apr 1994: CAPE 20, then +11.7% a year May 1994: CAPE 20, then +11.3% a year Jun 1994: CAPE 20, then +11.4% a year Jul 1994: CAPE 20, then +11.2% a year Aug 1994: CAPE 21, then +10.8% a year Sep 1994: CAPE 21, then +11.0% a year Oct 1994: CAPE 20, then +11.0% a year Nov 1994: CAPE 20, then +11.6% a year Dec 1994: CAPE 20, then +12.0% a year Jan 1995: CAPE 20, then +11.6% a year Feb 1995: CAPE 21, then +11.4% a year Mar 1995: CAPE 21, then +11.1% a year Apr 1995: CAPE 22, then +10.4% a year May 1995: CAPE 22, then +10.2% a year Jun 1995: CAPE 23, then +10.1% a year Jul 1995: CAPE 23, then +9.9% a year Aug 1995: CAPE 23, then +9.9% a year Sep 1995: CAPE 24, then +9.5% a year Oct 1995: CAPE 24, then +9.1% a year Nov 1995: CAPE 24, then +9.3% a year Dec 1995: CAPE 25, then +9.2% a year Jan 1996: CAPE 25, then +9.3% a year Feb 1996: CAPE 26, then +8.7% a year Mar 1996: CAPE 26, then +8.9% a year Apr 1996: CAPE 25, then +8.9% a year May 1996: CAPE 26, then +8.6% a year Jun 1996: CAPE 26, then +8.2% a year Jul 1996: CAPE 25, then +8.6% a year Aug 1996: CAPE 25, then +8.5% a year Sep 1996: CAPE 26, then +8.6% a year Oct 1996: CAPE 26, then +8.5% a year Nov 1996: CAPE 28, then +8.2% a year Dec 1996: CAPE 28, then +8.3% a year Jan 2002: CAPE 30, then +3.3% a year Feb 2002: CAPE 29, then +4.1% a year Mar 2002: CAPE 30, then +3.9% a year Apr 2002: CAPE 29, then +4.2% a year May 2002: CAPE 28, then +4.2% a year Jun 2002: CAPE 26, then +4.7% a year Jul 2002: CAPE 23, then +6.2% a year Aug 2002: CAPE 24, then +6.5% a year Sep 2002: CAPE 22, then +7.3% a year Oct 2002: CAPE 22, then +7.4% a year Nov 2002: CAPE 23, then +6.4% a year Dec 2002: CAPE 23, then +6.8% a year Jan 2003: CAPE 23, then +7.3% a year Feb 2003: CAPE 21, then +8.2% a year Mar 2003: CAPE 21, then +8.4% a year Apr 2003: CAPE 22, then +8.0% a year May 2003: CAPE 24, then +7.9% a year Jun 2003: CAPE 25, then +7.2% a year Jul 2003: CAPE 25, then +7.5% a year Aug 2003: CAPE 25, then +7.5% a year Sep 2003: CAPE 25, then +7.3% a year Oct 2003: CAPE 26, then +7.3% a year Nov 2003: CAPE 26, then +7.6% a year Dec 2003: CAPE 27, then +7.4% a year Jan 2004: CAPE 28, then +7.0% a year Feb 2004: CAPE 28, then +6.9% a year Mar 2004: CAPE 27, then +7.3% a year Apr 2004: CAPE 27, then +7.2% a year May 2004: CAPE 26, then +7.7% a year Jun 2004: CAPE 26, then +7.7% a year Jul 2004: CAPE 26, then +8.1% a year Aug 2004: CAPE 25, then +8.2% a year Sep 2004: CAPE 26, then +8.1% a year Oct 2004: CAPE 25, then +7.8% a year Nov 2004: CAPE 26, then +7.9% a year Dec 2004: CAPE 27, then +7.7% a year Jan 2005: CAPE 27, then +7.7% a year Feb 2005: CAPE 27, then +7.8% a year Mar 2005: CAPE 26, then +7.9% a year Apr 2005: CAPE 25, then +8.2% a year May 2005: CAPE 26, then +8.2% a year Jun 2005: CAPE 26, then +7.9% a year Jul 2005: CAPE 26, then +7.7% a year Aug 2005: CAPE 26, then +7.4% a year Sep 2005: CAPE 26, then +6.9% a year Oct 2005: CAPE 25, then +7.6% a year Nov 2005: CAPE 26, then +7.5% a year Dec 2005: CAPE 26, then +7.2% a year Jan 2006: CAPE 26, then +6.3% a year Feb 2006: CAPE 26, then +6.3% a year Mar 2006: CAPE 26, then +6.8% a year Apr 2006: CAPE 26, then +7.0% a year May 2006: CAPE 26, then +7.0% a year Jun 2006: CAPE 25, then +7.4% a year Jul 2006: CAPE 25, then +7.7% a year Aug 2006: CAPE 25, then +7.6% a year Sep 2006: CAPE 26, then +7.3% a year Oct 2006: CAPE 27, then +6.8% a year Nov 2006: CAPE 27, then +6.8% a year Dec 2006: CAPE 27, then +7.0% a year Jan 2007: CAPE 27, then +7.0% a year Feb 2007: CAPE 27, then +7.1% a year Mar 2007: CAPE 26, then +7.6% a year Apr 2007: CAPE 27, then +7.1% a year May 2007: CAPE 28, then +7.0% a year Jun 2007: CAPE 27, then +7.1% a year Jul 2007: CAPE 27, then +7.1% a year Aug 2007: CAPE 26, then +7.6% a year Sep 2007: CAPE 27, then +7.5% a year Oct 2007: CAPE 27, then +7.5% a year Nov 2007: CAPE 26, then +8.2% a year Dec 2007: CAPE 26, then +8.3% a year Jan 2008: CAPE 24, then +9.6% a year Feb 2008: CAPE 23, then +9.4% a year Mar 2008: CAPE 23, then +9.8% a year Apr 2008: CAPE 23, then +9.1% a year May 2008: CAPE 24, then +9.0% a year Jun 2008: CAPE 22, then +9.8% a year Jul 2008: CAPE 21, then +10.6% a year Aug 2008: CAPE 21, then +10.7% a year Sep 2008: CAPE 20, then +11.4% a year Oct 2008: CAPE 16, then +13.5% a year Nov 2008: CAPE 15, then +14.3% a year Dec 2008: CAPE 15, then +13.7% a year Jan 2009: CAPE 15, then +14.0% a year Feb 2009: CAPE 14, then +15.4% a year Mar 2009: CAPE 13, then +16.3% a year Apr 2009: CAPE 15, then +15.4% a year May 2009: CAPE 16, then +14.5% a year Jun 2009: CAPE 16, then +14.3% a year Jul 2009: CAPE 17, then +14.6% a year Aug 2009: CAPE 18, then +13.3% a year Sep 2009: CAPE 19, then +13.3% a year Oct 2009: CAPE 19, then +13.0% a year Nov 2009: CAPE 20, then +13.3% a year Dec 2009: CAPE 20, then +13.3% a year Jan 2010: CAPE 21, then +13.5% a year Feb 2010: CAPE 20, then +13.9% a year Mar 2010: CAPE 21, then +10.9% a year Apr 2010: CAPE 22, then +10.9% a year May 2010: CAPE 20, then +12.2% a year Jun 2010: CAPE 20, then +13.3% a year Jul 2010: CAPE 20, then +13.7% a year Aug 2010: CAPE 20, then +14.3% a year Sep 2010: CAPE 20, then +13.8% a year Oct 2010: CAPE 21, then +13.5% a year Nov 2010: CAPE 22, then +13.7% a year Dec 2010: CAPE 22, then +13.8% a year Jan 2011: CAPE 23, then +13.7% a year Feb 2011: CAPE 23, then +13.6% a year Mar 2011: CAPE 23, then +13.8% a year Apr 2011: CAPE 23, then +14.2% a year May 2011: CAPE 23, then +14.2% a year Jun 2011: CAPE 22, then +14.9% a year Jul 2011: CAPE 23, then +14.9% a year Aug 2011: CAPE 20, then +16.4% a year Sep 2011: CAPE 20, then +16.5% a year Oct 2011: CAPE 20, then +16.2% a year Nov 2011: CAPE 20, then +16.5% a year Dec 2011: CAPE 21, then +16.4% a year Jan 2012: CAPE 21, then +15.6% a year Feb 2012: CAPE 22, then +14.8% a year Mar 2012: CAPE 22, then +14.3% a year Apr 2012: CAPE 22, then +14.4% a year May 2012: CAPE 21, then +13.8% a year Jun 2012: CAPE 21, then +13.5% a year Jul 2012: CAPE 21, then +13.3% a year Aug 2012: CAPE 21, then +13.6% a year Sep 2012: CAPE 22, then +12.4% a year Oct 2012: CAPE 22, then +12.1% a year Nov 2012: CAPE 21, then +13.0% a year Dec 2012: CAPE 21, then +12.7% a year Jan 2013: CAPE 22, then +12.4% a year Feb 2013: CAPE 22, then +12.5% a year Mar 2013: CAPE 22, then +11.9% a year Apr 2013: CAPE 23, then +12.2% a year May 2013: CAPE 23, then +11.8% a year Jun 2013: CAPE 23, then +12.4% a year Jul 2013: CAPE 23, then +12.5% a year Aug 2013: CAPE 23, then +12.3% a year Sep 2013: CAPE 23, then +12.3% a year Jan 1928: CAPE 19, then +0.8% a year Feb 1928: CAPE 19, then +0.7% a year Mar 1928: CAPE 20, then -0.4% a year Apr 1928: CAPE 21, then -1.4% a year May 1928: CAPE 22, then -1.6% a year Jun 1928: CAPE 21, then -0.9% a year Jul 1928: CAPE 21, then +0.9% a year Aug 1928: CAPE 22, then +0.6% a year Sep 1928: CAPE 23, then -0.5% a year Oct 1928: CAPE 24, then +0.4% a year Nov 1928: CAPE 25, then -0.3% a year Dec 1928: CAPE 25, then -0.6% a year Jan 1929: CAPE 27, then -1.4% a year Feb 1929: CAPE 27, then -1.6% a year Mar 1929: CAPE 28, then -1.8% a year Apr 1929: CAPE 28, then -3.0% a year May 1929: CAPE 28, then -2.8% a year Jun 1929: CAPE 28, then -2.8% a year Jul 1929: CAPE 30, then -3.4% a year Aug 1929: CAPE 31, then -4.0% a year Sep 1929: CAPE 33, then -3.4% a year Oct 1929: CAPE 29, then -2.2% a year Nov 1929: CAPE 21, then +0.7% a year Dec 1929: CAPE 22, then +0.0% a year Jan 1997: CAPE 28, then +8.1% a year Feb 1997: CAPE 29, then +7.8% a year Mar 1997: CAPE 29, then +7.6% a year Apr 1997: CAPE 28, then +8.4% a year May 1997: CAPE 30, then +7.8% a year Jun 1997: CAPE 31, then +7.3% a year Jul 1997: CAPE 33, then +6.7% a year Aug 1997: CAPE 33, then +6.2% a year Sep 1997: CAPE 33, then +6.4% a year Oct 1997: CAPE 33, then +6.6% a year Nov 1997: CAPE 32, then +6.2% a year Dec 1997: CAPE 33, then +6.0% a year Jan 1998: CAPE 33, then +5.3% a year Feb 1998: CAPE 35, then +4.5% a year Mar 1998: CAPE 36, then +3.6% a year Apr 1998: CAPE 37, then +3.7% a year May 1998: CAPE 37, then +4.0% a year Jun 1998: CAPE 37, then +3.5% a year Jul 1998: CAPE 38, then +2.5% a year Aug 1998: CAPE 35, then +3.4% a year Sep 1998: CAPE 34, then +3.4% a year Oct 1998: CAPE 34, then +1.0% a year Nov 1998: CAPE 37, then -1.0% a year Dec 1998: CAPE 39, then -1.4% a year Jan 1999: CAPE 41, then -2.0% a year Feb 1999: CAPE 40, then -2.7% a year Mar 1999: CAPE 41, then -3.5% a year Apr 1999: CAPE 43, then -2.8% a year May 1999: CAPE 43, then -2.1% a year Jun 1999: CAPE 42, then -1.8% a year Jul 1999: CAPE 44, then -2.1% a year Aug 1999: CAPE 42, then -1.0% a year Sep 1999: CAPE 41, then -0.6% a year Oct 1999: CAPE 41, then -0.2% a year Nov 1999: CAPE 43, then -0.7% a year Dec 1999: CAPE 44, then -0.7% a year Jan 2000: CAPE 44, then -0.6% a year Feb 2000: CAPE 42, then -0.6% a year Mar 2000: CAPE 43, then -0.4% a year Apr 2000: CAPE 44, then -0.2% a year May 2000: CAPE 42, then -0.5% a year Jun 2000: CAPE 43, then -1.2% a year Jul 2000: CAPE 43, then -1.3% a year Aug 2000: CAPE 43, then -1.3% a year Sep 2000: CAPE 42, then -0.8% a year Oct 2000: CAPE 39, then +0.1% a year Nov 2000: CAPE 39, then +0.5% a year Dec 2000: CAPE 37, then +1.2% a year Jan 2001: CAPE 37, then +1.5% a year Feb 2001: CAPE 36, then +2.0% a year Mar 2001: CAPE 32, then +2.9% a year Apr 2001: CAPE 32, then +3.1% a year May 2001: CAPE 34, then +2.4% a year Jun 2001: CAPE 33, then +2.3% a year Jul 2001: CAPE 32, then +2.9% a year Aug 2001: CAPE 31, then +2.0% a year Sep 2001: CAPE 28, then +3.1% a year Oct 2001: CAPE 29, then +3.1% a year Nov 2001: CAPE 30, then +2.8% a year Dec 2001: CAPE 30, then +2.8% a year Jan 2000 CAPE in the starting month Up: yearly return over the next ten years, dividends reinvested, before inflation. Across: CAPE in the starting month.
The dots slope down. When CAPE was over 30, the next ten years returned a median of 1.2% a year . When it was under 10, the median was 15.2% a year .
The spread is wide, though. Between 20 and 25, results ranged from -2.6% to 16.5% a year.
What this cannot tell you. Expensive can stay expensive. A high CAPE did not say when prices would fall. CAPE passed 30 in June 1997. The S&P 500’s monthly average price then rose by about 70% before it peaked in August 2000.
Someone who sold in 1997 because shares looked expensive missed that rise. Waiting for a cheap market can take years.
It looks back, not forward. These are US results from one long record. The data ends in September 2023, so the last starting month with a full ten years is September 2013. This is a look back, not a forecast or a reason to buy or sell.
Where the numbers come from. The full method is on our method page . Past returns do not predict future results.
